Open Letter to Doc

Doc’s been in North Carolina, saying his final farewells to his beloved mother. His cell phone is spotty. His email server’s hosed. Since I can’t get in touch with him, I’ll just put my thoughts here and let him pick them up when he can.

Hi Doc,

Sorry I haven’t been in touch for about a week. You’ve been so distracted with your mother’s illness and then your return for her memorial last weekend. I appreciate the updates on voicemail and, before it went down, email. I’ve been moved by your comments. I envy you your wonderful history with your mother, something I never had. I especially appreciated the picture of you and her at the beach, and the one with the whole family, you at six, holding the beer bottle. You had a wry look then and still do. Some people “get” irony at an early age and some never do. You’re my favorite “man of iron”-y.

Though you haven’t been able to update, I’m sure the interment and memorial went well, and that your eulogy was as eloquent as you always are. I’ll bet you even leavened it with humor from your deep reservoir of benevolent irony. I never asked if you agree with me (but I bet you do) that the most important element in grief is high mirth and the vital antidote to arrogance is an appreciation of our essential absurdity.

Things have been a little quiet here in NYC, but the weather has been magnificent, early fall, really. I’m spending every morning in Bryant Park, soaking up the WiFi, the good vibes and some sun, since the air’s cool enough to encourage a few rays. What a great place. As I write this tonight, they’re concluding the free film series with 2001: A Space Odyssey.

Here are some pix from this morning. The first one’s looking west from the terrace next to the New York Public Library.

I chatted with a fellow there this morning about free WiFi in the Park, a very well-dressed midtown type. I shared your advice that, should one wish to gain access to the whole of the world’s knowledge from the Library’s west reading room, you need to sit by the windows and log on to the Bryant Park WiFi. It’s uncertain if you’re better off in the Library’s impressive reading room without WiFi, or online at the Park’s charming little reading room, with its staff of maroon-shirted volunteers:

My new friend’s a big-time Madison Avenue attorney, who spontaneously said, “I love anything that weakens Microsoft’s stranglehold on us all!” Whew! You don’t expect that kind of spontaneous emission in middle-aged guys like us. With just a bit of encouragement, he also expressed his dismay with the current administration. He can’t make the Dean rally tomorrow night, but seemed heartened to detect a way out of the wilderness.

This next picture is of an actor in some kind of commercial, gesticulating meaningfully behind a laptop with a green screen into which some video jock will paste some important-appearing computer information, without which no enterprise could hope to compete against the awesome forces arrayed against it.

You will appreciate the irony reeking from the image. Nothing meaningful said. No information on the screen. No comprehension of the message by the actor. In fact, at the moment I snapped this, the crew had just quit shooting but hadn’t yet told the actor, who continued buzzwording on, full of sound and flurry, signifying nothing.

Xpertweb is moving along, albeit more slowly than I’d like. Roland’s waiting for me to rough out the datatypes for the three preference sets present in each task, the Seller, Buyer and the Product/Task. I hate it when I’m the one in the middle of the critical path. It forces me to stop pontificating and to get on with real work.

Well, I’d better get on with Roland’s datatyping. Travel well. Tell your relatives that there are now people all over the world who care about them–people whom they will never meet. Now that’s news.

Hugs,

Britt

11:01:18 PM    

The Eagle has Landed

Zack Rosen is a brilliant young man who represents everything that’s right about the Dean campaign. He’s a student in the Computer Science Department at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, one of the world’s finest CS programs. The last UIUC CS student who made a major difference was Mark Andreessen when he wrote Mosaic, the little web browser that grew into Netscape. The UIUC’s Computer Science program is trolling for some reflected glory from Zack. The CS Department’s home page has a link to the Wired article describing Zack’s vision.

On July 19 & 20, Zack and his friend Evan DiBiase met with Zephyr Teachout at our apartment in New York. Zephyr is Howard Dean’s Director for Internet outreach. Wouldn’t you love to be able to tell your grandkids you held that job the year politics got re-invented? The thumbnail images on the right link to Evan’s photos from that weekend. Mouse over them for a description.

In early July, I had asked Zephyr if she’d like to use our apartment to meet with Zack to plan Dean Internet v. 2.0. The mini-summit was set up and Zack and Evan drove over from Pittsburgh and Zephyr flew down from Burlington.

Zack told us that weekend that if he went back to school in the fall, he’d just flunk out since he’d be working full time on the project. So, wouldn’t it make sense for the campaign to hire him and save a brilliant career from premature ruin? When he put it that way, it was impossible for the campaign to resist.

The results of our work excited us all and now Zack’s in Burlington working on several important projects, supported by a small army of volunteers around the country.

As I’ve said before, his major project involves the best imaginable toolkit for grassroots campaign management. Joe Trippi, Dean’s campaign manager, told Larry Lessig last week that this is an open source campaign, that the important and truly effective stuff originates and is championed by the people and then spreads to campaign management. Everything that we’ve seen so far is the result of lashing together existing tools and web services, ad hoc, into the most effective Internet-based campaign ever.

We ain’t seen nothin’ yet

Rev 2.0 of the Dean Internet involves the RSS-based DeanSpace toolkit that I’ve described before. The system uses interacting RSS feeds to facilitate viral interaction among purpose-built local campaign sites, with blogs, mutual help, email lists and every other goodie you can imagine. Probably some we can’t imagine.

Our next Dean event at the apartment will be a get-together here prior to the big Dean rally in Bryant Park on Tuesday and I’ve asked Zack to spread the word among the Dean interns who are thinking of a road trip. Every month or so, it’s exciting to host a dormitory for committed, clear-eyed young people with a high purpose.

It’s amazing how much fun you can have by offering the right people a place to sleep in Midtown Manhattan with no check-out time. Oh yeah, with free pizza. Part of the deal.

I’ve depicted the DeanSpace concept before, when it was called Americans for Dean, but here it is again:

Brainstorming at Britt's Apartment
Hanging Papers
United Nations
The Triumph of Industrial Design
Zack and Britt
Zephyr
Line of Bottles
Hard at Work
Gathered around the Cinema Displayfire
Late-Night Discussion
Digital Photography


Open Sourcery

These truly are the best of times, because our tools have become permission-free. Just as there is no way to stop us from Purchasing the Dean Campaign by buying our own votes, there is also no way any force on earth can keep citizens from equipping themselves with the tools to contribute money, ideas, talent and shoe leather to the political activity of their choice. DeanSpace is building an open source toolkit. I call it Campaign-in-a-Box (notice that little RSS Feeds widget in the center):

The campaign has built a rapid feedback loop that’s not going to disappear after the election. These donors will be just as demanding of the President they bought as any other donors. And that’s where the DeanSpace network comes in. Remember that widget called RSS Feeds in the network graphic?

It’s a technical breakthrough in campaign organization, a chaordic disruption of party politics, and another genie freed from its bottle. This is a big deal:

  • The campaign (or resulting presidency) can’t ignore the comments posted to its own blog
  • Interesting comments rise through the Dean sites to reach a broader audience
  • More information moves to the campaign than from it
  • More initiatives and work get proposed and acted upon from outside the campaign than within

It’s a Kick in the RSS

What Zack saw before almost anyone else is that the aggregator is the network. By distributing a consistent toolkit, Deaniacs (as they call themselves) will build a zillion Dean sites. Each of those sites will vote good ideas to the top and expose them in their RSS feeds. Other sites will absorb those good ideas and vote the best ones further up the hierarchy of common sense.

War is a series of campaigns that try to perfect the means for blowing things up. A Presidential election is a series of campaigns that try to perfect the means to aggregate lots of voices around a candidate’s shared vision. Both kinds of campaigns have, until now, forced the troops to conform to the whims of HQ. For the first time, a Presidential campaign is submitting to the elegant chaos of the grass roots. If that campaign elects the President, we’ll be started down a path that looks nothing like the road that got us here.

11:12:19 PM    

Steal This Campaign, Redux

This is a repeat of an earlier blog, inspired by Jim Moore’s opinion, repeated most recently on 7/24 that we can raise a billion dollars for the Dean campaign:

A billion dollars for Dean, slight reprise

The fiscal year 2004 Federal budget is $1,731 billion dollars. Yup, one point seven trillion dollars–for a YEAR.

I’m amazed, based on these figures, that there isn’t more money in campaign finance!  Bush is blowing everyone’s mind by raising $200 million for his 2004 “primary” and general election campaign. He expects to spend over $170 million for his unopposed primary victory, prior to the Republican convention!  Everyone thinks this is a lot of money. Hell, I think it is a bargain. Chump change, given what is at stake. Bush and the Republicans will then turn around and control one point three trillion dollars a year–for four years. That is a lot of Haliburton contracts.

Awhile back I suggested that if just 1 million people (1/2 of Moveon.org’s registered users) gave $1000 to the Dean campaign, a billion dollars could be raised. What is the cost of taking back the presidency? If you have never written a campaign check before–you are in luck! This year you can put it on your credit card–it’s like buying a book from Amazon. Wouldn’t you buy a few more books to change the face of America?

We can’t exactly steal it, but we can buy it. Cheap.

We can buy the Dean campaign by showering it with so many $50 contributions that they won’t have to worry about corporate contributions. Apparently the Republicans are raising $200 million from their closest friends based on a single cynical premise:

You can buy people’s votes

The back story on that cynical assumption is that they need to be bought because they never manifest themselves other than through big time TV marketing.

But if we do what Jim Moore suggests, a million people giving $1,000, the Republican’s cynical assumptions go out the window.

Scale

Everyone seems to agree that 6/30/03 will be written about for years since it was the first spontaneous expression of political will by self-organizing voters talking each other into caring more and donating more through the Moveable Type Comments function. That inspiring day caused the campaign to believe more strongly in its core aspiration: to somehow get nominated and then to give the Republicans a decent challenge. If 6/30 is as important as it seems, the campaign should re-calibrate its goals:

$1 Billion
60 Million votes (including 15% of the Republican vote)
A Patriotic Congress (Patriotic = constructively bi-partisan), riding Dean’s coattails
A re-definition of American as cooperative, kind and open-minded

Do the Math

Internet-equipped people caused $802,000 to be donated to Dean on 6/30/03. They did it by chatting each other up as the new totals were posted every half hour, and as the goal, depicted as a baseball bat, was increased as goal after goal was surmounted through the afternoon.

A freely associating mob is forming around the Dean campaign. Its communication tools will soon transcend the Campaign comment archives, by organizing its own tools. The campaign can’t stop them nor should it want to, though there are surely consultants who would just as soon all this went away. Too late.

Metcalfe’s Law says that this mob’s value and power will grow with the square of its population, attracting more people and volksmoney as an accretion disc in space sucks matter away from the systems around it. I believe this phenomenon is a social force too powerful to be stopped, and that historians may be as interested in 6/30/03 as 9/11/01.

The smart mob is not limited by the campaign’s preconceptions. At a gut level, this mob seems to be saying, “We’ve got plenty of money for this little problem. Shit, we send $6 billion a year to Apple Computer. Apple! We can easily spend a billion or two every four years to own our own government!”.

Easy Monthly Payments

I’m encouraging the Dean campaign to set up three giving clubs:

  • Club   42, whose members put $  42.66 on their credit card each month = $  500 per year
  • Club   83, whose members put $  83.33 on their credit card each month = $1,000 per year
  • Club 166, whose members put $166.66 on their credit card each month = $2,000 per year

Is That a President in your Pocket or are You Just Happy to See Me?

Imagine being a significant financing source for a populist President. Imagine being part of an army of people who, for less than $3 a day, transforms the face of American Democracy.

It could even be a return to the spirit of Andrew Jackson, the hero of the Battle of New Orleans, and even more like Teddy Roosevelt, beloved by the people despite his patrician roots. Like Roosevelt, Dean is presented with the opportunity to break the stranglehold that business has on politics.

The more things, change the more they stay the same.

7:37:42 PM    

Power Break

A little break can be a good thing. After posting my Minimalism entry, I entertained friends on Wednesday night and then Thursday we had a little trouble with the utilities in Manhattan, so we entertained stranded co-workers willing to climb 28 floors: an evening of candlelight, wine and conversation reminded us of simpler pleasures (“Let’s drink the white first while it’s cold”).

It was a surprise three day weekend and the Internet seemed less compelling than I would have thought–I found it relaxing to be offline. I had unused power in the PowerBook battery and a POTS phone line and internal modem, but it didn’t seem necessary to add to the descriptions of what was, essentially, obvious.

When asked to comment on Niagara Falls by its enthusiastic boosters, Calvin Coolidge took a look and asked, “What’s to hinder?”

Amy Harmon of the New York Times called on Saturday for background on an article she was writing. I told her I really didn’t have anything more interesting than relaxation to report. And so she didn’t.

I do have a small bit of advice for handling blackouts. Yesterday was a glorious day, so I took a long walk, enjoying a street fair on Lexington and a stroll through the Park. Last night brought stomach upset and a real-life Immodium commercial. Why would a seemingly rational man buy a Gyro sandwich from a street vendor the day after every piece of meat in town has been warmed to room temperature?

Now back to our regular programming…

Resistance is Mutual

The theme I discern from my idle rants and the more thoughtful deliberations of others is consistent: at a deep level, each of us is convinced of our authority as the pinnacle of reason; that intelligence and insight degrade rapidly with the distance from our influence (ignoring the fact that, if a husband’s alone in the forest, he’s still wrong). So, rather than a participatory search for collective enlightenment and right action, we spend all our effort trying to convince others to think and act as we do.

How well does this work? Take a look around.

So is there a way out of this foolishness? It looks to me like the Internet’s hive mind is working on the answer without us realizing it. In other words, paraphrasing Scott McNeely, the network is the human.

If so, then the self-directed Clint Eastwood is a mirage, though most of us believe that’s how we’re supposed to lead our lives if we weren’t so weak and other-directed. What’s worse, we believe that people who appear to be like Clint are people worth following, deferring to and voting for.

So we may be in a society where the leaders cling to their illusion of competence to stay in power and the rest of us cling to their illusion to stay in denial.

The Bloomin’ Truth

Howard Bloom is the one who first clued me that we’re not wired for solitary action, back in 1995 when his important book, The Lucifer Principle, was published. In fact, his second chapter (after Who is Lucifer?) is The Clint Eastwood Conundrum. Bloom demonstrates that we are totally social creatures and that isolation is the ultimate poison.

My guess is that we are drawn to those who appear to be independent and strong for the same reason that chimps and wildebeests are, but those types need our attention as an actor needs an audience. Bloom suggests, and Susan Blackmore reinforces the point, in The Meme Machine, that these strong, self-assured types are indeed actors, posturing in ways that have become second nature, attracting us with their compelling demonstrations of independence and stubbornness to ensure that they can avoid the fear we all share: never be alone.

So I wonder if we aren’t all resisting the truth that the strong, independent father figure is a threat to us all. George Lakoff points out that we’re inclined to embrace the metaphor of the strong father and question the value of a nurturant parent.

What if all our emperors are naked and we’re just their credulous patsies? What if the reality of sucking up to a strong-appearing leader is that we simply give a questionable ego more fuel and their self-indulgent personality more reason to spurn us?

10:14:00 PM    

Minimalism

Capitalism may not last forever. For decades I’ve been wondering what the next “ism” might be. I think I’ve got it. It’s Minimalism: a cultural sense of restraint.

Minimalism suggests that:

  • The Government that governs least governs best.
  • No one gets any say about another’s private behavior.
  • Humans have a God-given right to Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness,
    even if they don’t worship their neighbor’s god.
  • Humans deserve non-interference from persons that are not human, such as corporations.

What we have today is the opposite of Minimalism: Grandiosity. Everything’s supposed to get bigger forever: every company, advertising campaign, bulk mail, spam mailing, copyright law, car and, above all, government. You know, the Texas-sized notion that everything should be bigger, flashier, more expensive and impressive. All-pervasive boosterism and Big Bidness, boy howdy! Guys with big hats and over-dressed women and huge Rolex watches.

We used to say of pilots with fancy chronometers on their wrist, “Big clock, small cock.”

Capitalism has developed to the point that it vests its chieftains with a grandiosity beyond belief. Our leader of the free world has not one but two 747’s at his beck and call, 5,900 employees and a budget estimated at $730 million as of three years ago.

FDR managed a war on two sides of the world with a staff of 18 and a rail car.

Federal Staff Reductionism

There’s only one way to reduce the Washington bureaucracy, which is the ostensible goal of conservatives, but obviously not their effect. Minimalism can only come about when the bureaucrats embrace smallness. But how to do that?

Web applications.

We all know that most bureaucrats could be replaced by a reasonably well programmed web app. Whether public or on an intranet, a properly designed web site can elicit the information needed to replace many a bureaucrat’s job of repackaging information for the consumption of those who think they need a bureaucrat to define the obvious.

I propose a crack team of experts on call to help bureaucrats eliminate their positions–a web site, an 800 number, bulletins on boards, etc. The message: if you can help us devise a web application that moves information as your job description specifies, then you get to go home and continue receiving the pay and benefits you’re getting and reasonable increases, plus a great retirement package when the time comes.

Yep. We’re ready to do that for you, Mr. Bureaucrat, to keep you from dreaming up programs to make your position seem necessary; to avoid the endless rounds of committee meetings and studies and travel and consulting contracts to make it appear that how you move information needs more study. No, we realize that the expensive part of government is the programs you dream up, not the cost of paying and retiring you.

Save the Children

But what about the programs that matter, you ask? Is this merely a variation on the NeoCons’ idea that if we just stop spending gummint money then we can return to a pristine world of bucolic villages and faith-based socials and solutions (don’t pay attention to those smokestacks and fetid water)?

No, there are real needs and real money to spend. Undernourished, under-educated children need a better future. Minimalism doesn’t have a problem with spending money on kids and job training and a health care safety net. It also doesn’t mind spending money defending us against real threats, like people who actually possess WMDs. No, Minimalism has a problem with ideological politicians funneling so much money through a bureaucracy stealing money from real problems.

Minimalism has an abhorrence of corporate welfare supporting obsolete business models and legislation to jail customers who invent their own media packaging and an arms race against ourselves. Rather, Minimalism seeks a spareness in all things, whether government, legislation, business, marketing or car stereo volume. It’s not a matter of making laws defining efficiency and slim government, it’s a matter of allowing a culture-wide sense of restraint to permeate our shared aesthetic about how to conduct our affairs. The time seems to have arrived.

When we get it right, we’ll know it, and the simple act of defining ourselves as minimalists may be a start. Howard Dean has ignited voters by saying that deficits need to be minimized, that federal gun control needs to be minimized and that the feds have no business telling states what form of ritual qualifies their citizens as life partners.

I’ve been traveling to Vermont for 42 years and got married once in Dallas, so I have a sense of the contrasts. Vermont’s always been a place of few words and laws. A quiet place where people keep to themselves but help their neighbors. Sure, there are more ex-urbanites there now, but the place hasn’t changed that much. The last president from Vermont was a man of few words. When asked to comment on Niagara Falls by its enthusiastic boosters, Calvin Coolidge took a look and asked, “What’s to hinder?”

Ayep, Vermont’s a good place to spawn an overdue sense of minimalism.

10:55:46 PM    

The Campaign Mentality

We all know that technology accelerates during wartime and that a war is a series of campaigns. I’m fascinated by the wartime mentality, whether or not it occurs in combat, so let’s call it a campaign mentality. The campaign mentality sets in when a group feels so strongly about its mission that it transcends the usual carping, grandstanding, empire-building and pettiness that marks so much of enterprise. It’s invigorating.

War is the easiest way to produce the campaign phenomenon, and gets the most attention. But the mentality is not unusual. Every time a plane takes off or a boat launches, its occupants share a campaign mentality as to the importance of arriving gently on dry land. In the startup companies I’ve started or helped, a campaign mentality was expressed by the participants’ olympian willingness to work harder, longer faster–and cheaper–than people in established companies.

Political campaigns are the best non-combat examples of the campaign mentality. And they’re an interesting counterpoint. The aim of war is to blow things up, so war technology is designed to blow them up more accurately and cheaply. The aim of political campaigns is to build consensus, so its technology is about building consensus faster and more cheaply.

I’ve felt for a while now that a smart mob is in the process of stealing the Dean campaign, because the smart mob is growing faster and more intelligently than any campaign’s ability to manage it. As Doc suggests, the competition will learn how to use the tools that Dean is using, but what will they get for their trouble? A campaign like Dean’s, where the people manage the dialogue, a decidedly counter-Rovian management style.

Massage the Medium

If the people take over your campaign, what have you got left?

  • The campaign blog with staff personalities and volunteers’ comments is the Sunshine law of backroom politics. You lose control of the process and start to host the kind of dialogue that the front runners have never wanted.
  • Your Contribute Now link attracts a zillion people who think they have a stake in your campaign just because they charged 20 bucks to their Visa.
  • Rank experts set up their own campaign sites and then open source hobbyists invent a whole new set of tools to let the sites talk to each other and all their users blog and then let them vote on the ideas they like best, just like it was a participatory democracy rather than a Tory republic.
  • People dream up new ways to give you money and then bitch at you if you don’t put up an automatic donation tool in a week. (Zephyr? Bobby? Anyone there?)
  • People start chatting online with the campaign manager, taking valuable time away from the important work of writing ads to get people interested in the campaign.
  • Instead of making up your own mind about fundraising tactics, you end up having to ask the donors if they’re ready to give another half mill you hadn’t counted on.
  • College kids and even high schoolers (high schoolers!) run their own sites without asking permission, (the high schoolers patiently explaining that half the kids in high school will be able to vote in 16 months). They’re so insistent that the candidate feels obligated to shuffle off to Buffalo between Oklahoma and Iowa. The kids even organize their own ride board, fer chrissake!

And these people think that, just because they replace the PAC and National Committee and corporate soft money that they should have as much say in your administration as those they replaced. They feel entitled just because they bought their own votes!

Remember that part about users voting each other’s ideas up the queue like a bunch of SlashDotters? That’s the Knowledge Base tech that everybody’s been talking about but not getting around to. It’s the campaign mentality! These amateurs may not even think they’re inventing new tech and may have never heard the endless conversation about how to turn blogs into knowledge. Just like WWI for aviation and WWII for atomic energy, this campaign is spinning off blog-to-Knowledge Base tech.

Democracy, the Killer App

And blogs-to-knowledge base is the end of politics as usual. With citizen blogs and preference-registering knowledge bases and interested amateurs taking ownership of government, democracy becomes the Next Big Thing. The campaign mentality works like it always does, pushing tech to the limit. Special interests realize they’ll never get everything they want so they start to get real about what’s possible, so NYC Democrats cheer for a balanced budget pitched by a rural-state Guv who opposes national gun control.

It wouldn’t make sense unless they felt like they own the guy.

11:37:18 PM    

Save the Children

Frank Patrick’s Focused Perfomance blog is a reliable source of wisdom on what works in business processes and what doesn’t. When I rant on about the failings of large organizations, he gently hauls me back by reminding me that what seems like wasted effort is the natural result of supporting the truly effective people with those who do the less-than-excellent work that the stars simply can’t get to. He knows that companies can only avoid the over-use of great resources by backing them up with “good-enough” resources.

Now Frank has taken on a project that deserves a great resource like him. It’s called A Global Virtual Classroom, a continuation of a successful AT&T project linking elementary and secondary school classes from around the world in collaborative “virtual classrooms.” It’s a little like the Xpertweb concept, on the basis that what needs teaching in your school may be available elsewhere, in classes which have mastered the challenge you’re most interested in. Think of the real life Jaime A. Escalante who was the inspirational Math teacher in Stand and Deliver, one of Doc‘s favorite films.

Apparently AT&T has other fish to fry and has turned over the project to the Give Something Back International Foundation. The AT&T foundation has provided a small grant to re-start the initiative, and Frank is looking for additional support for his client and talent to get the tech part right. Check it out. It’s a chance to be part of something bigger than your local school bitchfest.

1:30:53 PM    

Crystal Balling for Fun & Prophet

What if someone could use scientific research to divine the sure winner of the 2004 election?

I love it when someone finds valid patterns where everyone else sees chaos. I even love it when someone pretends to find valid patterns where everyone else sees chaos. Today’s report is courtesy of Doc, who sent me a link to research reported by Eric Schulman, Ph.D, an astrophysicist who probably understands math better than Doc and I combined. But Eric is also a humorist who has authored a book, A Briefer History of Time and a number of articles spoofing the world of research. My favorite title: The History of the Universe in 200 Words or Less in 30 Languages or More in Teeny Tiny Type

Schulman has devised the Electability Formula, which looks at candidates’ years of experience in various public roles, and the actual results of campaigns:

Electability = 4P – V – S + R + 9G + 95DCI + 95GEN + 95NUC,

where P is the number of years the candidate served as President, V is the number of years the candidate served as Vice President, S is the number of years the candidate served as U. S. Senator, R is the number of years the candidate served as U. S. Representative, and the Boolean variables DCI/GEN/NUC are 1 if the candidate served as Director of Central Intelligence (e.g., George H. W. Bush), was a general officer in the United States Armed Forces (e.g., Dwight D. Eisenhower), or ordered the combat use of nuclear weapons (e.g., Harry S. Truman), respectively. Note that this is not necessarily a unique solution (i.e., we stopped searching once we found a set of parameters that worked). In each U. S. Presidential election between 1932 and 2000, the candidate with the higher electability won.

Historically, Schulman contends, a President’s years in office has an advantage against most contenders (4 points per Pres. year), unless he’s running against a former Governor (9 points per Guv year) or someone who has earned 95 bonus points. The 95 bonus points accrue to anyone who ordered the use of a nuclear weapon (N), has been a General (G), or was Director of the CIA (D). Such statistical gymnastics was the only way Schulman could explain Truman’s defeat of Dewey in 1948, Eisenhower’s wins against Adlai Stevenson or Dubya’s dad against anyone. You’ll notice that it’s a negative to have been a Vice President or a Senator, which probably comports with your personal view.

By jiggering the formula until it worked, Schulman has been able to rationalize the outcome of every presidential race since 1932. This is the kind of thing that Wall Street’s technical analysts do, so brokers can promise amateurs they can beat pros in the stock market. Schulman’s point is that his is a bogus indicator, only true retrospectively. The question is whether it will still be retrospectively valid in 2005.

Theoretical Musings, 2001

Americans seem to love experienced Governors who run for office, and not Senators or VPs. In 2001, Schulman noted, tongue firmly in cheek, that it would take a 4-term Governor to defeat George W. Bush:

“An empirical formula is of little use if it cannot predict future events. Should George W. Bush remain in office and run for re-election in 2004, he would have an electability of 70. The Democrats, however, could defeat him if they nominated James B. Hunt, Jr., the four-term governor of North Carolina. But Republican strategists will no doubt have read this article, too, and could respond by nominating four-term South Dakota Governor William J. Janklow. Both candidates would have electabilities of 144 (assuming they have no other relevant government experience between now and 2004). Two candidates with tied electabilities would surely lead to the closest U. S. Presidential election in 75 years.”

Candidate Year Pres VP Sen Rep Gov (x9) D/G/N?
(95)
Electabilty
George W. Bush 2004 4 0 0 0 6   70
James B. Hunt, Jr. 2004 0 0 0 0 16   144
William J. Janklow 2004 0 0 0 0 16   144

“This catastrophe could be avoided if President George W. Bush orders the combat use of nuclear weapons before November of 2004, in which case his electability would jump to 165, comfortably larger than any of the possible Democratic candidates.”

Outcome if George Bush Manages to Nuke Somebody
Candidate Year Pres VP Sen Rep Gov (x9) D/G/N?
(95)
Electabilty
George W. Bush 2004 4 0 0 0 6 N 165
James B. Hunt, Jr. 2004 0 0 0 0 16   144
William J. Janklow 2004 0 0 0 0 16   144

2003 – Real News for a Real Election

We are indeed fortunate that Dr. Schulman updated his research at the end of June. He applied his groundbreaking algorithm to the field of Democratic hopefuls and concluded that, despite General Wesley Clark’s 95 point advantage from his Generalship, Howard Dean is the best man to beat Bush, if the Dems are smart enough to nominate him:

“George W. Bush will have an electability of 70 if he remains in office through November of 2004. The Democrats could defeat him if they nominated either former Governor Howard Dean (electability of 108) or retired General Wesley Clark (electability of 95). Since the Democrats wish to regain the White House, they will presumably nominate one of these men.”

Candidate Pres VP Sen Rep Gov (x9) D/G/N?
(95)
Electabilty
Howard Dean 0 0 0 0 12 108
Wesley Clark 0 0 0 0 0   95
George W. Bush 4 0 0 0 6     70
Bob Graham 0 0 -18 0 8     54
Richard Gephardt 0 0 0 28 0     28
Dennis Kucinich 0 0 0 8 0       8
Al Sharpton 0 0 0 0 0       0
John Edwards 0 0 -4 0 0   -4
Carol Moseley Braun 0 0 -6 0 0     -6
Joseph Lieberman 0 0 -16 0 0 -16
Bill Bradley 0 0 -18 0 0   -18
John Kerry 0 0 -20 0 0 -20
Joseph Biden 0 0 -32 0 0   -32

It’s the Algorithm, Stupid

Don’t pay attention to Dean’s advantage in real-world politics – the 75,118 people signed up to go to a Meetup tonight, or the 258,452 people who have registered at DeanforAmerica.com, or the campaign’s ability to raise a half a mill by posting a graphic on their site or by Dean’s appearance on the covers of Time, Newsweek and U.S. News. None of that matters. Schulman’s math tells us all we need to know: Howard Dean will be our next president and, with any luck, General Wesley Clark will be his running mate.

Except for the Rove factor.

Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid.

Schulman notes one wild card:

“However, should President George W. Bush order the combat use of nuclear weapons before November of 2004, his electability would jump to 165, comfortably larger than any of the possible Democratic candidates.”

12:17:40 AM    

Clued

The Cluetrain Manifesto:

Networked markets are beginning to self-organize faster than the companies that have traditionally served them. Thanks to the web, markets are becoming better informed, smarter, and more demanding of qualities missing from most business organizations.

And political parties

 
     
 

The Dean Blog

New Thread: Homepage Redesign Comments

Many of you have been leaving great comments about glitches that have appeared in the redesign of the homepage.

Nicco and Jim Brayton (our new web developer) are working on many of the changes you’ve suggested. As you find small errors, however, please let us know by commenting in the thread below.

Posted by Mathew Gross at 10:18 AM, 8/01/03

     
1. Markets are conversations  
     
 
Hi, Jim! Welcome aboard! Nice job.

Are you one of the Top Secret weapons that Trippi was going to use the extra $258k to acquire?

Posted by: Phoenix Woman at August 1, 2003 10:21 AM | Link

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 DeanTV heading links to email signup. Posted by: Michael McNett at August 1, 2003 10:21 AM | Link

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 Glad to see the Blog link at the top of the site now, just one little glitch though….the ALT image tag still reads Meetup!Posted by: Chris Jaun at August 1, 2003 10:23 AM | Link

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 Hi – great job on the redesign!

The white text against the black has a fuzzy or blurry aspect on the vertical segments of the characters. I have a pretty high resolution screen, yet the vertical segments are quite weak and the text is not as easy to read as the other elements.

Thanks!

Posted by: Tony in Dallas at August 1, 2003 10:26 AM | Link

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 I can’t find the Dean Mart! I was going to buy a bunch of bumper stickers to give my friends and family, and there’s no quick and easy link anymore…Posted by: Angie at August 1, 2003 10:28 AM | Link
     
2. Markets consist of human beings, not demographic sectors  
     
 

Hi Jim,

Three things.

1. Several people have mentioned the error still in the Sleepless icon with Alexandria instead of Falls Church.

2. I’ve been tracking the Signup numbers in a graph as your graph of Meetup numbers. If you want the excel numbers in order to make a nice graph let me know:

http://www.smcm.edu/users/isterling/dean.html

3. The blog icon should be at the top of the page as several people have mentioned. Highest priority.

Thanks and great job, Ivan

Posted by: isterling at August 1, 2003 10:33 AM | Link

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 I am having the same problem. Where is Dean Mart?Posted by: Mary at August 1, 2003 10:34 AM | Link

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 I do not like the expanding menu items on the left. It is confusing that clicking on some of the top-level items takes you to a web page, and others expand the menu. Also, after you click on one of the items, the menu does not stay open, which is annoying.

I think you should just expand all the menu items and make clicking on the top level menu always take you to an overview page.

Also, I don’t like it that clicking on the blog link opens a new window.

— former web designer

Posted by: Luke Francl at August 1, 2003 10:35 AM | Link

———————————-

 On pages like this one:

http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/PageServer?pagename=policy_statement_civilrights

The sidebar of issue links is inset a bit far, with extra white space on the right, and the left side of the red line is jammed up against the body text.

Also, the justified body text is fine for narrow newspaper columns, but it just doesn’t look right online. Especially when you see big empty spaces between words. But even on the other lines, it just looks odd for the text to push right up against both sides of the page.

These aren’t errors, of course, just stylistic suggestions.

Posted by: Mark N. at August 1, 2003 10:36 AM | Link

     
3. Conversations among human beings sound human. They are conducted in a human voice
     
 

Oo. Excellent — both the redesign and the request for comments. Brava!

Quick comments:

1) I would like to see an easy to find section with major policy speeches — things like the June 23rd restoration speech, the CFR speech, the economic policy speech and yesterday’s environmental policy speech — all in one place.

2) Someone suggested this previously, but a rotating header picture across the top (Dean smiling, serious, casual, formal, etc.) that changes randomly with each reload would be cool.

3) A personal note from the Governor beyond the bio. “Welcome to my site.. blah blah blah.” (Also, it would be good if the Guv would post regularly to this site. 🙂 )

4) This may be better suited for BFA and may not be appropriate for reasons that involve political stuff I’m ignorant of, but it would be neat if there were a ‘Meet the Campaign staff’ page with pics and short bios of people from HQ along with pics/bios of official staff around the country and then maybe spotlights on volunteers. Admittedly, there are touchy issues, but it might work.

5) It would be nice if the page were liquid–that is, if the width expanded and contracted with my browser/screen size. We have a liquid design at valuejudgment.org that also uses 3 columns (although much simpler than what you’re doing.)

That’s it for now. Keep up the good work!

Posted by: J from VJ at August 1, 2003 10:41 AM | Link

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 ***NEED TO MOVE DEAN MART***

It is under Get Involved.

It should be under Tools & Resources.

Posted by: Free Spirit at August 1, 2003 10:43 AM | Link

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 More oddities. Again Safari on Mac. Left-hand link text is dark blue on a black background. Much too low contrast. The hover color is even worse, some sort of midnight blue.

Tests out okay on Mozilla for Mac where it’s white on black with orange hover.

Posted by: Paul in SF at August 1, 2003 10:46 AM | Link

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 Paul in SF:

I’m using Safari 1.0 (v85) and to me the links are white on black with an orange rollover.

Posted by: Chad Jones at August 1, 2003 10:50 AM | Link

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 Speeches should be more prominently located than in just the Pressroom. Especially “The Great American Restoration” speech. Which, I think, should play a greater role in the web site and the campaign. Posted by: Chris Fearnley at August 1, 2003 10:51 AM | Link
     
4. Whether delivering information, opinions, perspectives, dissenting arguments or humorous asides, the human voice is typically open, natural, uncontrived
     
 

Glad to see the photo with Mrs.Dean…very nice..

Posted by: jb at August 1, 2003 10:52 AM | Link

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 I like the new design, but would also like to see rotating pictures of Dr. Dean on the front page.

Right now you have a nice image of him in the header for every page–that’s great. Unfortunately, the image is repeated (with the “Dean” signs in the background) at the top of the content for the first page. It bothers me to see the same image twice so close together, and to me it works much better as it is used in the banner/header.

Even if you can’t do the rotating images, please consider changing the bigger picture on the home page.

Thanks for listening!

Posted by: DrFood at August 1, 2003 10:52 AM | Link

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 I mean Dr. Steinberg…!!!ooopppsPosted by: jb at August 1, 2003 10:53 AM | Link
     
5. People recognize each other as such from the sound of this voice
     
 

Regarding the Community Outreach pages–

I wish we could find a way to celebrate our unity without creating special pages for sub-groups. We gain little by dividing ourselves up into constituencies instead of uniting around common goals.

This tired rallying around diversity has no parallel on the other side in the culture war, and it’s one reason they’re strong. (Don’t underestimate them.)

I would hope that a more subtle reading of our increasingly blended and tolerant peoples could find a way to articulate a vision that takes us beyond narrow identity interests.

Could we address the concerns of our potentially broad and diverse base by focusing more on issues or actions? Can we weave everyone’s concerns into a whole? This would by far be my preference.

Posted by: Sheri from Sacto at August 1, 2003 10:59 AM | Link

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 I wouldn’t have Dean randomly changing images on every refresh. That should be a feature of Kerry’s website, I believe. Posted by: Mark N. at August 1, 2003 11:01 AM | Link

—————
——————-

 Ok, looks good over all, but here are some comments

1) like others have said – get rid of the black to Grey monochromatic left column. Instead of starting with black and fading, use a dark blue and fade to a lighter blue/slate. Black may be hip, but I dunno for a political site 😦

2) Give the blog some credit… move it up with meetup.com’s logo (and maybe scale the meetup logo down a bit, it is the strongest element on the page due to size & color …)

3) get rid of the 750px table. it looks like hell on large monitors, and doesn’t give much for smaller ones… if you want to keep it, center it to make it better for us with over 1024×768 monitors 🙂

4) Drop down (hide/show) menus. I like them, but there should be some sort of “click to show full menu” or some such. Why you ask? because not everyone visiting will be as savvy as we are, and it may be confusing to grandma and grandpa (not to mention mom & dad for some of us who are a bit older…)

5)Left column: too much “dead space” (cant call it white space now can I LOL). above and below each item is too much room, tweak the stylesheets a bit to close the margins in, especially in the search form
ie: form {margin-top:0px; margin-bottom:0px}
and tweak till right

6) why 2 site search boxes (left column one in its own “box” the other below convio logo)? This is a bit confusing. Do they both search DFA? or does one search something else?

Overall its a good facelift, just needs tweaking here & there — good job 🙂

-John

Posted by: John Hoke at August 1, 2003 11:02 AM | Link

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 I don’t like how the link to the blog is now hidden under pressroom. It is such a huge aspect to the campaign that it should have its own big fat prominent link right there by “home”. Thanks!Posted by: Jim Richardson at August 1, 2003 11:05 AM | Link

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 OT: Regarding Bush ‘blurring the lines’ on gay marriage/civil unions in his speech.

I posted a comment on this yesterday when the speech first broke news.

Bush/Rove&Co (and especially the soft-money “issue” ad buyers) will be doing this from here out.

Bush realizes that a great percentage of Americans thought the 9/11 hijackers were Iraqis. These uninformed people supported the president’s war aims — they really thought it was clearly self-defense. The administration still has not made efforts to clarify this to the American people — they *need* voters to be confused. Polls show generally that the more Americans know about what they are doing, the more they are against them.

This is pointed out as well in that support for the war declined as people’s education levels increased. The more literate and in touch with the news people are, the more the realize what the President is really up to.

I believe this is generally why Dean’s supporters have the demographics they do — Internet users are among the more educated and informed Americans.

I believe this is where we will win or lose. If the administration confuses and blurs the issues enough, they can trick people into supporting their aims. This is why they ‘bait and switch’ virtually every issue – they make people think one thing, and do another. Only the more informed actually realize they aren’t doing what they said. This is where the Republican soft-money will go – to confuse voters, blur issues and ‘trick’ people.

And it will work. It’s a proven tactic by now. Generally fool-proof and funded by soft money.

Efforts to combat this must be focused on understanding ‘who’ the messages are being targeted at. Knowledgeable people are likely already with us — it’s the ill-informed who are at risk. Those with lower education and attention spans than Dean’s current more educated base.

We need to ask not only “how will the message play in Peoria?”, but also “how will it play in trailer parks in Peoria?”

On the good news side of this issue, it seems to me that this is the first efforts of Bush/Rove&Co to begin campaign specifically against Dean. We’re on their radar and they’re already campaigning against *us*. Pretty exciting news actually.

Kevin
http://www.fightingdems.com

Posted by: NH Idea Guy at August 1, 2003 11:07 AM | Link

     
6. The Internet is enabling conversations among human beings that were simply not possible in the era of mass media
     
 

Welcome Jim! Feel free to guest blog and tell us a little about yourself.

Posted by: Gloria Smith TX at August 1, 2003 11:11 AM | Link

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 I agree with oodles of other bloggers…get rid of the black. It’s freaky and intimidating, not welcoming like it should be. I think blue would look nice (and appropriately Democratic) but that’s just my $.02. I trust you guys to fix it up.

I really like the top of the website though…the American flag melting into Dean signs. Awesome. Don’t change that a bit.

Posted by: Sarah from MN at August 1, 2003 11:12 AM | Link

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 Hey when are you guys going to announce the TOP SECRET fund use? I know many of us are wondering why you are waiting so long… waiting for the Monday news cycle?

🙂

Posted by: beeny at August 1, 2003 11:13 AM | Link

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 Had a hunch…

http://www.jimbrayton.com

Posted by: Vermonter at August 1, 2003 11:13 AM | Link

     
7. Hyperlinks subvert hierarchy
     
 
GREAT NEW SITE DESIGN! I would suggest that you make the right side of the screen (where all the information is) should be revamped to be more visually pleasing.

Also please add Charleston, SC for Dean website into the Dean Directory.

http://charlestonfordean.blogspot.com

SC for Dean website will soon be up at:
http://www.scfordean.com

Posted by: Robert at August 1, 2003 11:25 AM | Link

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 I am posting this from another message board. I have no idea as to its accuracy. I think the campaign should check it out, though (if they already haven’t). If it is mostly accurate, as an MD, Dean should really speak out on this one (if he hasn’t already):

—————-
Please read this and make your voice heard. This can have very serious effects for all of us.

President Bush has announced his plan to select Dr. W. David Hager to the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) Reproductive Health Drugs Advisory Committee. The committee has not met for more than two years,during which time its charter has lapsed. As a result, the Bush Administration is tasked with filling all eleven positions with new members. These positions do not require Congressional approval.

The FDA’s Reproductive Health Drugs Advisory Committee makes crucial decisions on matters relating to drugs used in the practice of obstetrics, gynecology and related specialties, including hormone therapy, contraception, treatment for infertility, and medical alternatives to surgical procedures for sterilization and pregnancy termination. Dr. Hager’s views of reproductive health care are far outside the mainstream of setback for reproductive technology. Dr. Hager is a practicing OB/GYN who describes himself as “pro-life” and refuses to prescribe contraceptives to unmarried women. Hager is the author of “As Jesus Cared for Women: Restoring Women Then and Now.” The book blends biblical accounts of Christ healing women with case studies from Hager’s practice. In the book Dr. Hager wrote with his wife, entitled “Stress and the Woman’s Body,” he suggests that women who suffer from premenstrual syndrome should seek help from reading the bible and praying.

As an editor and contributing author of “The Reproduction Revolution: A Christian Appraisal of Sexuality, Reproductive Technologies and the Family” Dr. Hager appears to have endorsed medically inaccurate assertion that the common birth control pill is an abortifacient. Hager’s mission is religiously motivated. He has an ardent interest in revoking approval for mifepristone (formerly known as RU-486) as a safe and early form of medical abortion.

Hagar recently assisted the Christian Medical Association in a “citizen’s petition” which calls upon the FDA to revoke its approval of mifepristone in the name of women’s health. Hager’s desire to overturn mifepristone’s approval on religious grounds rather than scientific merit would halt the development of mifepristone as a treatment for numerous medical conditions disproportionately affecting women, including breast cancer, uterine cancer, uterine fibroid tumors, psychotic depression, bipolar depression and Cushing’s syndrome.

Women rely on the FDA to ensure their access to safe and Effective drugs for reproductive health care including products that prevent pregnancy. For some women, such as those with certain types of diabetes and those undergoing treatment for cancer pregnancy can be a life-threatening condition. We are concerned that Dr. Hager’s strong religious beliefs may color his assessment of technologies that are necessary to protect women’s lives or to preserve and promote women’s health. Hager’s track record of using religious beliefs to guide his medical decision-making makes him a dangerous and inappropriate candidate to serve as chair of this committee.

Critical drug public policy and research must not be held hostage by antiabortion politics. Members of this important panel should be appointed on the basis of science and medicine, rather than politics and religion. American women deserve no less.

WHAT CAN YOU DO?
1. SEND THIS TO EVERY PERSON WHO IS CONCERNED ABOUT WOMEN’S RIGHTS.

2. OPPOSE THE PLACEMENT OF THIS MAN BY CONTACTING THE WHITE HOUSE AND TELL THEM HE IS TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE ON ANY LEVEL.

Please email President Bush at president@whitehouse.gov and say “I oppose the appointment of Dr. Hager to the FDA Reproductive Health Drugs Advisory Committee. Mixing religion and medicine is unacceptable. Using the FDA to promote a political agenda is inappropriate and seriously threatens women’s health.”

Thanks

Posted by: Free Spirit at August 1, 2003 11:26 AM | Link

     
Seven Theses down, 88 to go…  

12:31:24 AM    

So Little to Say, So Much Time to Say it…

My uncharacteristic silence is a result of a lot of travel and having so many things going right with my projects that I hardly know where to start. I’ve also had a writer’s block on a rant regarding the nature of organizations in an open source economy. More on all that later.

The Futures of Terrorism

DARPA‘s on-again, off-again market for information on terrorism inspired an interesting blogalogue. Doc pushed back against it, attracting claims he was trashing something Clueful. From an intelligence standpoint, PAM, the Terror Market Bimbo, immediately howled out of existence, would have been a good idea if you believe in efficient markets having perfect knowledge. (Of course there is no such thing as perfect market knowledge, despite the brilliant people who have made a career selling the theory to amateurs hoping to beat experts at their own game.)

ENRON and WorldComm and their ilk suggest that terrorism would find better funding and planning if it had its own futures market. It would increase our predictive skills, and it would increase terrorist activity.

But that wasn’t the real reason PAM died at the box office. Every society has limits on what it conceives and the ideas it pursues. So we do not support public hangings or cane-lashings or stoning adulterers. Those things and millions of others are, literally, unthinkable to us, and it’s right for a society to not use tools and weapons it finds inconceivable.

Toward an Aesthetic Culture

Steve Jobs famously told Bill Gates that the problem with Microsoft is that they have no taste. Software is routinely released by MS that would be inconceivable at Apple, based on its appearance, its function and its bugginess. The two companies simply have different tastes in what’s acceptable. So it is with cultures.

Any student of cultural aesthetics would observe that ours has grown a lot uglier in the last two years. Winston Churchill or even Tony Blair would have forged a stronger society upon the anvil of our post-9/11 rage, grief, and world sympathy. Our illiterate leader and his opportunistic handlers have contrarily cheapened our demeanor and savaged our international reputation. Compared to the rest of the civilized world, this administration, literally, has no taste.

It’s absurd to wonder if we could somehow develop better cultural taste, and agree to look beyond our petty concerns and agree on a society more pleasing to the spirit. But a guy can dream…

It’s the Opportunism, Stupid

Politicians are naturally opportunistic, but at each point in the trajectory of a nation’s evolution, there are levels of opportunism that even they won’t sink to. For two centuries it was inconceivable that states would operate a numbers game because property owners prefer not to pay for proper schooling. Lottery income isn’t a fiscal necessity, it’s the product of a lack of the political leadership to lead people to pay for what’s important in an informed and civil society.

Since the phone tap was invented, it was literally inconceivable that the government would eavesdrop on your line without a warrant. That’s a nicety that evaporated when our TV culture got its high-profile WTC face slap.

Just as opportunists in state government couldn’t resist the siren call of lottery profits, so too was the big-gummint temptation too great for the opportunistic Ashcroft, Bush and Cheney. Like any government, they want to control our lives, ensure their power and shrink the opposition into oblivion. The odd thing is that they claim to be conservatives while violating the conservative aesthetic of small government, fiscal responsibility and avoiding foreign entanglements.

About that Face Slap

What if our 9/11 tragedy wasn’t? I hate to sound harsh about our losses, but has it occurred to anyone else that running airplanes into buildings might not have been the logistical masterstroke of the century?

I’m suggesting that there was an operational hole in our hijacking prevention system and that some passionate Arabs got lucky and managed to kill some of us. I’ve got about 2500 hours in a Boeing 707, and I’m sure that a couple hundred hours in Microsoft Simulator would be enough for the average person to switch off a 767 autopilot, turn left and crash into the Twin Towers. The fact that they did some actual flight training in a Cessna seems irrelevant.

There’s almost 300 million of us. On 9/11/01, those Arabs killed a little over .001% of us, fewer than die from smoking every week. Instead of panicking, we could have started locking cockpit doors, continued to keep guns off airplanes, and we’d have plugged that loophole.

Perhaps 9/11 was more spectacle than significant. Of course, there’s a war on terror, but we’re the foot soldiers in that war, and we should acknowledge that some of us are going to get hurt. It’s a war, fer chrissake! I’ve been traveling a lot lately, and as most of us know, the airport precautions are more charade than anything else. We all understand that we’re not significantly safer than we were before. Feeling safer is not the same as being safer.

What we might have done in the middle of September 2001, if tough-mindedness were part of our national makeup, would be to say,

OK, you motherfuckers, you got lucky once. We’re not changing how we live our lives, but we’re changing how you live your lives, starting with Saudi Arabia, which is the obvious catalyst for this foolishness. We’re going to do the thing you can’t stand us to do: Freeze your assets, dictate what we’re willing to pay for oil, and spend those saved billions on energy independence and telecommuting technologies. Any company that resists that initiative will be exposed for its un-American activities. Now you guys fix that Taliban problem or we’ll get really nasty and put an embargo on bizjets.”

That kind of thinking arises from my sense that we spend most of our lives flying into large mountains avoiding small bullets. I learned that lesson when I saw a guy do that very thing in Viet Nam, so clanked was he about the idea of someone shooting at him that he ignored the reality that airplanes and mountains are a bad combo.

Yeah, yeah, I know, we can’t dictate market forces. But if OPEC can, we can. Of course we’d only do that if we had confidence in the resilience of the American people and if national security were more important to us than oil company profits. Our homeland security problem is that the American Oil Industry benefits from artificially low prices as much as the Sheiks of Araby, as ex-CIA Mideast specialist Bob Baer points out in Sleeping With the Devil: How Washington Sold Our Soul for Saudi Crude, cited today by Salon,the real war we should be fighting is not in Baghdad.”

Small Minds, not Small Government

Maybe we got it wrong. We thought the Bushies were about small government, but perhaps it was only about their small mandate. Maybe they were fixated on what everyone seems to ignore: without extraordinary measures, they’re unlikely to get more votes than last time. The opportunity the Bin Laden family handed the Bush family was to paralyze our culture so ordinary electoral logic would not apply.

“Lucky me. I hit the trifecta,” Bush told [Mitch] Daniels shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks, according to the budget director.
                        
– Miami Herald , Nov. 29, 2001*

These cynical points have been made by smarter people than I. I’m just riffing on the role of our cultural aesthetic and high tolerance of cynicism. The political cynicism we’re seeing is related to the cynicism of public companies and TV evangelists and the media. Our cultural taste no longer reflects the high personal values most of us hold, regardless of our politics. Instead, we’re gripped by the opportunistic economic aesthetics of large groups, where anything goes as long as it increases stock values or electoral votes or collection plate revenues.

1:26:17 AM