|
Doc’s been in North Carolina, saying his final farewells to his beloved mother. His cell phone is spotty. His email server’s hosed. Since I can’t get in touch with him, I’ll just put my thoughts here and let him pick them up when he can.
|
Author: brittblaser
The Eagle has Landed
|
|||||
Steal This Campaign, Redux
|
This is a repeat of an earlier blog, inspired by Jim Moore’s opinion, repeated most recently on 7/24 that we can raise a billion dollars for the Dean campaign:
We can’t exactly steal it, but we can buy it. Cheap. We can buy the Dean campaign by showering it with so many $50 contributions that they won’t have to worry about corporate contributions. Apparently the Republicans are raising $200 million from their closest friends based on a single cynical premise: You can buy people’s votes The back story on that cynical assumption is that they need to be bought because they never manifest themselves other than through big time TV marketing. But if we do what Jim Moore suggests, a million people giving $1,000, the Republican’s cynical assumptions go out the window. ScaleEveryone seems to agree that 6/30/03 will be written about for years since it was the first spontaneous expression of political will by self-organizing voters talking each other into caring more and donating more through the Moveable Type Comments function. That inspiring day caused the campaign to believe more strongly in its core aspiration: to somehow get nominated and then to give the Republicans a decent challenge. If 6/30 is as important as it seems, the campaign should re-calibrate its goals:
Do the MathInternet-equipped people caused $802,000 to be donated to Dean on 6/30/03. They did it by chatting each other up as the new totals were posted every half hour, and as the goal, depicted as a baseball bat, was increased as goal after goal was surmounted through the afternoon. A freely associating mob is forming around the Dean campaign. Its communication tools will soon transcend the Campaign comment archives, by organizing its own tools. The campaign can’t stop them nor should it want to, though there are surely consultants who would just as soon all this went away. Too late. Metcalfe’s Law says that this mob’s value and power will grow with the square of its population, attracting more people and volksmoney as an accretion disc in space sucks matter away from the systems around it. I believe this phenomenon is a social force too powerful to be stopped, and that historians may be as interested in 6/30/03 as 9/11/01. The smart mob is not limited by the campaign’s preconceptions. At a gut level, this mob seems to be saying, “We’ve got plenty of money for this little problem. Shit, we send $6 billion a year to Apple Computer. Apple! We can easily spend a billion or two every four years to own our own government!”. Easy Monthly PaymentsI’m encouraging the Dean campaign to set up three giving clubs:
Is That a President in your Pocket or are You Just Happy to See Me?Imagine being a significant financing source for a populist President. Imagine being part of an army of people who, for less than $3 a day, transforms the face of American Democracy. It could even be a return to the spirit of Andrew Jackson, the hero of the Battle of New Orleans, and even more like Teddy Roosevelt, beloved by the people despite his patrician roots. Like Roosevelt, Dean is presented with the opportunity to break the stranglehold that business has on politics. The more things, change the more they stay the same. |
Power Break
|
A little break can be a good thing. After posting my Minimalism entry, I entertained friends on Wednesday night and then Thursday we had a little trouble with the utilities in Manhattan, so we entertained stranded co-workers willing to climb 28 floors: an evening of candlelight, wine and conversation reminded us of simpler pleasures (“Let’s drink the white first while it’s cold”). It was a surprise three day weekend and the Internet seemed less compelling than I would have thought–I found it relaxing to be offline. I had unused power in the PowerBook battery and a POTS phone line and internal modem, but it didn’t seem necessary to add to the descriptions of what was, essentially, obvious.
Amy Harmon of the New York Times called on Saturday for background on an article she was writing. I told her I really didn’t have anything more interesting than relaxation to report. And so she didn’t. I do have a small bit of advice for handling blackouts. Yesterday was a glorious day, so I took a long walk, enjoying a street fair on Lexington and a stroll through the Park. Last night brought stomach upset and a real-life Immodium commercial. Why would a seemingly rational man buy a Gyro sandwich from a street vendor the day after every piece of meat in town has been warmed to room temperature? Now back to our regular programming… Resistance is MutualThe theme I discern from my idle rants and the more thoughtful deliberations of others is consistent: at a deep level, each of us is convinced of our authority as the pinnacle of reason; that intelligence and insight degrade rapidly with the distance from our influence (ignoring the fact that, if a husband’s alone in the forest, he’s still wrong). So, rather than a participatory search for collective enlightenment and right action, we spend all our effort trying to convince others to think and act as we do. How well does this work? Take a look around. So is there a way out of this foolishness? It looks to me like the Internet’s hive mind is working on the answer without us realizing it. In other words, paraphrasing Scott McNeely, the network is the human. If so, then the self-directed Clint Eastwood is a mirage, though most of us believe that’s how we’re supposed to lead our lives if we weren’t so weak and other-directed. What’s worse, we believe that people who appear to be like Clint are people worth following, deferring to and voting for. So we may be in a society where the leaders cling to their illusion of competence to stay in power and the rest of us cling to their illusion to stay in denial. The Bloomin’ TruthHoward Bloom is the one who first clued me that we’re not wired for solitary action, back in 1995 when his important book, The Lucifer Principle, was published. In fact, his second chapter (after Who is Lucifer?) is The Clint Eastwood Conundrum. Bloom demonstrates that we are totally social creatures and that isolation is the ultimate poison. My guess is that we are drawn to those who appear to be independent and strong for the same reason that chimps and wildebeests are, but those types need our attention as an actor needs an audience. Bloom suggests, and Susan Blackmore reinforces the point, in The Meme Machine, that these strong, self-assured types are indeed actors, posturing in ways that have become second nature, attracting us with their compelling demonstrations of independence and stubbornness to ensure that they can avoid the fear we all share: never be alone. So I wonder if we aren’t all resisting the truth that the strong, independent father figure is a threat to us all. George Lakoff points out that we’re inclined to embrace the metaphor of the strong father and question the value of a nurturant parent. What if all our emperors are naked and we’re just their credulous patsies? What if the reality of sucking up to a strong-appearing leader is that we simply give a questionable ego more fuel and their self-indulgent personality more reason to spurn us? |
Minimalism
|
Capitalism may not last forever. For decades I’ve been wondering what the next “ism” might be. I think I’ve got it. It’s Minimalism: a cultural sense of restraint. Minimalism suggests that:
What we have today is the opposite of Minimalism: Grandiosity. Everything’s supposed to get bigger forever: every company, advertising campaign, bulk mail, spam mailing, copyright law, car and, above all, government. You know, the Texas-sized notion that everything should be bigger, flashier, more expensive and impressive. All-pervasive boosterism and Big Bidness, boy howdy! Guys with big hats and over-dressed women and huge Rolex watches. We used to say of pilots with fancy chronometers on their wrist, “Big clock, small cock.” Capitalism has developed to the point that it vests its chieftains with a grandiosity beyond belief. Our leader of the free world has not one but two 747’s at his beck and call, 5,900 employees and a budget estimated at $730 million as of three years ago. FDR managed a war on two sides of the world with a staff of 18 and a rail car. Federal Staff ReductionismThere’s only one way to reduce the Washington bureaucracy, which is the ostensible goal of conservatives, but obviously not their effect. Minimalism can only come about when the bureaucrats embrace smallness. But how to do that? Web applications. We all know that most bureaucrats could be replaced by a reasonably well programmed web app. Whether public or on an intranet, a properly designed web site can elicit the information needed to replace many a bureaucrat’s job of repackaging information for the consumption of those who think they need a bureaucrat to define the obvious. I propose a crack team of experts on call to help bureaucrats eliminate their positions–a web site, an 800 number, bulletins on boards, etc. The message: if you can help us devise a web application that moves information as your job description specifies, then you get to go home and continue receiving the pay and benefits you’re getting and reasonable increases, plus a great retirement package when the time comes. Yep. We’re ready to do that for you, Mr. Bureaucrat, to keep you from dreaming up programs to make your position seem necessary; to avoid the endless rounds of committee meetings and studies and travel and consulting contracts to make it appear that how you move information needs more study. No, we realize that the expensive part of government is the programs you dream up, not the cost of paying and retiring you. Save the ChildrenBut what about the programs that matter, you ask? Is this merely a variation on the NeoCons’ idea that if we just stop spending gummint money then we can return to a pristine world of bucolic villages and faith-based socials and solutions (don’t pay attention to those smokestacks and fetid water)? No, there are real needs and real money to spend. Undernourished, under-educated children need a better future. Minimalism doesn’t have a problem with spending money on kids and job training and a health care safety net. It also doesn’t mind spending money defending us against real threats, like people who actually possess WMDs. No, Minimalism has a problem with ideological politicians funneling so much money through a bureaucracy stealing money from real problems. Minimalism has an abhorrence of corporate welfare supporting obsolete business models and legislation to jail customers who invent their own media packaging and an arms race against ourselves. Rather, Minimalism seeks a spareness in all things, whether government, legislation, business, marketing or car stereo volume. It’s not a matter of making laws defining efficiency and slim government, it’s a matter of allowing a culture-wide sense of restraint to permeate our shared aesthetic about how to conduct our affairs. The time seems to have arrived. When we get it right, we’ll know it, and the simple act of defining ourselves as minimalists may be a start. Howard Dean has ignited voters by saying that deficits need to be minimized, that federal gun control needs to be minimized and that the feds have no business telling states what form of ritual qualifies their citizens as life partners. I’ve been traveling to Vermont for 42 years and got married once in Dallas, so I have a sense of the contrasts. Vermont’s always been a place of few words and laws. A quiet place where people keep to themselves but help their neighbors. Sure, there are more ex-urbanites there now, but the place hasn’t changed that much. The last president from Vermont was a man of few words. When asked to comment on Niagara Falls by its enthusiastic boosters, Calvin Coolidge took a look and asked, “What’s to hinder?” Ayep, Vermont’s a good place to spawn an overdue sense of minimalism. |
The Campaign Mentality
|
We all know that technology accelerates during wartime and that a war is a series of campaigns. I’m fascinated by the wartime mentality, whether or not it occurs in combat, so let’s call it a campaign mentality. The campaign mentality sets in when a group feels so strongly about its mission that it transcends the usual carping, grandstanding, empire-building and pettiness that marks so much of enterprise. It’s invigorating. War is the easiest way to produce the campaign phenomenon, and gets the most attention. But the mentality is not unusual. Every time a plane takes off or a boat launches, its occupants share a campaign mentality as to the importance of arriving gently on dry land. In the startup companies I’ve started or helped, a campaign mentality was expressed by the participants’ olympian willingness to work harder, longer faster–and cheaper–than people in established companies. Political campaigns are the best non-combat examples of the campaign mentality. And they’re an interesting counterpoint. The aim of war is to blow things up, so war technology is designed to blow them up more accurately and cheaply. The aim of political campaigns is to build consensus, so its technology is about building consensus faster and more cheaply. I’ve felt for a while now that a smart mob is in the process of stealing the Dean campaign, because the smart mob is growing faster and more intelligently than any campaign’s ability to manage it. As Doc suggests, the competition will learn how to use the tools that Dean is using, but what will they get for their trouble? A campaign like Dean’s, where the people manage the dialogue, a decidedly counter-Rovian management style. Massage the MediumIf the people take over your campaign, what have you got left?
And these people think that, just because they replace the PAC and National Committee and corporate soft money that they should have as much say in your administration as those they replaced. They feel entitled just because they bought their own votes! Remember that part about users voting each other’s ideas up the queue like a bunch of SlashDotters? That’s the Knowledge Base tech that everybody’s been talking about but not getting around to. It’s the campaign mentality! These amateurs may not even think they’re inventing new tech and may have never heard the endless conversation about how to turn blogs into knowledge. Just like WWI for aviation and WWII for atomic energy, this campaign is spinning off blog-to-Knowledge Base tech. Democracy, the Killer AppAnd blogs-to-knowledge base is the end of politics as usual. With citizen blogs and preference-registering knowledge bases and interested amateurs taking ownership of government, democracy becomes the Next Big Thing. The campaign mentality works like it always does, pushing tech to the limit. Special interests realize they’ll never get everything they want so they start to get real about what’s possible, so NYC Democrats cheer for a balanced budget pitched by a rural-state Guv who opposes national gun control. It wouldn’t make sense unless they felt like they own the guy. |
Save the Children
|
Frank Patrick’s Focused Perfomance blog is a reliable source of wisdom on what works in business processes and what doesn’t. When I rant on about the failings of large organizations, he gently hauls me back by reminding me that what seems like wasted effort is the natural result of supporting the truly effective people with those who do the less-than-excellent work that the stars simply can’t get to. He knows that companies can only avoid the over-use of great resources by backing them up with “good-enough” resources. Now Frank has taken on a project that deserves a great resource like him. It’s called A Global Virtual Classroom, a continuation of a successful AT&T project linking elementary and secondary school classes from around the world in collaborative “virtual classrooms.” It’s a little like the Xpertweb concept, on the basis that what needs teaching in your school may be available elsewhere, in classes which have mastered the challenge you’re most interested in. Think of the real life Jaime A. Escalante who was the inspirational Math teacher in Stand and Deliver, one of Doc‘s favorite films. Apparently AT&T has other fish to fry and has turned over the project to the Give Something Back International Foundation. The AT&T foundation has provided a small grant to re-start the initiative, and Frank is looking for additional support for his client and talent to get the tech part right. Check it out. It’s a chance to be part of something bigger than your local school bitchfest. |
Crystal Balling for Fun & Prophet
|
What if someone could use scientific research to divine the sure winner of the 2004 election? I love it when someone finds valid patterns where everyone else sees chaos. I even love it when someone pretends to find valid patterns where everyone else sees chaos. Today’s report is courtesy of Doc, who sent me a link to research reported by Eric Schulman, Ph.D, an astrophysicist who probably understands math better than Doc and I combined. But Eric is also a humorist who has authored a book, A Briefer History of Time and a number of articles spoofing the world of research. My favorite title: “The History of the Universe in 200 Words or Less in 30 Languages or More in Teeny Tiny Type“ Schulman has devised the Electability Formula, which looks at candidates’ years of experience in various public roles, and the actual results of campaigns:
Historically, Schulman contends, a President’s years in office has an advantage against most contenders (4 points per Pres. year), unless he’s running against a former Governor (9 points per Guv year) or someone who has earned 95 bonus points. The 95 bonus points accrue to anyone who ordered the use of a nuclear weapon (N), has been a General (G), or was Director of the CIA (D). Such statistical gymnastics was the only way Schulman could explain Truman’s defeat of Dewey in 1948, Eisenhower’s wins against Adlai Stevenson or Dubya’s dad against anyone. You’ll notice that it’s a negative to have been a Vice President or a Senator, which probably comports with your personal view. By jiggering the formula until it worked, Schulman has been able to rationalize the outcome of every presidential race since 1932. This is the kind of thing that Wall Street’s technical analysts do, so brokers can promise amateurs they can beat pros in the stock market. Schulman’s point is that his is a bogus indicator, only true retrospectively. The question is whether it will still be retrospectively valid in 2005. Theoretical Musings, 2001Americans seem to love experienced Governors who run for office, and not Senators or VPs. In 2001, Schulman noted, tongue firmly in cheek, that it would take a 4-term Governor to defeat George W. Bush:
2003 – Real News for a Real ElectionWe are indeed fortunate that Dr. Schulman updated his research at the end of June. He applied his groundbreaking algorithm to the field of Democratic hopefuls and concluded that, despite General Wesley Clark’s 95 point advantage from his Generalship, Howard Dean is the best man to beat Bush, if the Dems are smart enough to nominate him:
It’s the Algorithm, StupidDon’t pay attention to Dean’s advantage in real-world politics – the 75,118 people signed up to go to a Meetup tonight, or the 258,452 people who have registered at DeanforAmerica.com, or the campaign’s ability to raise a half a mill by posting a graphic on their site or by Dean’s appearance on the covers of Time, Newsweek and U.S. News. None of that matters. Schulman’s math tells us all we need to know: Howard Dean will be our next president and, with any luck, General Wesley Clark will be his running mate. Except for the Rove factor. Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid.Schulman notes one wild card:
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Clued
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
So Little to Say, So Much Time to Say it…
|
My uncharacteristic silence is a result of a lot of travel and having so many things going right with my projects that I hardly know where to start. I’ve also had a writer’s block on a rant regarding the nature of organizations in an open source economy. More on all that later. The Futures of TerrorismDARPA‘s on-again, off-again market for information on terrorism inspired an interesting blogalogue. Doc pushed back against it, attracting claims he was trashing something Clueful. From an intelligence standpoint, PAM, the Terror Market Bimbo, immediately howled out of existence, would have been a good idea if you believe in efficient markets having perfect knowledge. (Of course there is no such thing as perfect market knowledge, despite the brilliant people who have made a career selling the theory to amateurs hoping to beat experts at their own game.) ENRON and WorldComm and their ilk suggest that terrorism would find better funding and planning if it had its own futures market. It would increase our predictive skills, and it would increase terrorist activity. But that wasn’t the real reason PAM died at the box office. Every society has limits on what it conceives and the ideas it pursues. So we do not support public hangings or cane-lashings or stoning adulterers. Those things and millions of others are, literally, unthinkable to us, and it’s right for a society to not use tools and weapons it finds inconceivable. Toward an Aesthetic CultureSteve Jobs famously told Bill Gates that the problem with Microsoft is that they have no taste. Software is routinely released by MS that would be inconceivable at Apple, based on its appearance, its function and its bugginess. The two companies simply have different tastes in what’s acceptable. So it is with cultures. Any student of cultural aesthetics would observe that ours has grown a lot uglier in the last two years. Winston Churchill or even Tony Blair would have forged a stronger society upon the anvil of our post-9/11 rage, grief, and world sympathy. Our illiterate leader and his opportunistic handlers have contrarily cheapened our demeanor and savaged our international reputation. Compared to the rest of the civilized world, this administration, literally, has no taste. It’s absurd to wonder if we could somehow develop better cultural taste, and agree to look beyond our petty concerns and agree on a society more pleasing to the spirit. But a guy can dream… It’s the Opportunism, StupidPoliticians are naturally opportunistic, but at each point in the trajectory of a nation’s evolution, there are levels of opportunism that even they won’t sink to. For two centuries it was inconceivable that states would operate a numbers game because property owners prefer not to pay for proper schooling. Lottery income isn’t a fiscal necessity, it’s the product of a lack of the political leadership to lead people to pay for what’s important in an informed and civil society. Since the phone tap was invented, it was literally inconceivable that the government would eavesdrop on your line without a warrant. That’s a nicety that evaporated when our TV culture got its high-profile WTC face slap. Just as opportunists in state government couldn’t resist the siren call of lottery profits, so too was the big-gummint temptation too great for the opportunistic Ashcroft, Bush and Cheney. Like any government, they want to control our lives, ensure their power and shrink the opposition into oblivion. The odd thing is that they claim to be conservatives while violating the conservative aesthetic of small government, fiscal responsibility and avoiding foreign entanglements. About that Face SlapWhat if our 9/11 tragedy wasn’t? I hate to sound harsh about our losses, but has it occurred to anyone else that running airplanes into buildings might not have been the logistical masterstroke of the century? I’m suggesting that there was an operational hole in our hijacking prevention system and that some passionate Arabs got lucky and managed to kill some of us. I’ve got about 2500 hours in a Boeing 707, and I’m sure that a couple hundred hours in Microsoft Simulator would be enough for the average person to switch off a 767 autopilot, turn left and crash into the Twin Towers. The fact that they did some actual flight training in a Cessna seems irrelevant. There’s almost 300 million of us. On 9/11/01, those Arabs killed a little over .001% of us, fewer than die from smoking every week. Instead of panicking, we could have started locking cockpit doors, continued to keep guns off airplanes, and we’d have plugged that loophole. Perhaps 9/11 was more spectacle than significant. Of course, there’s a war on terror, but we’re the foot soldiers in that war, and we should acknowledge that some of us are going to get hurt. It’s a war, fer chrissake! I’ve been traveling a lot lately, and as most of us know, the airport precautions are more charade than anything else. We all understand that we’re not significantly safer than we were before. Feeling safer is not the same as being safer. What we might have done in the middle of September 2001, if tough-mindedness were part of our national makeup, would be to say,
That kind of thinking arises from my sense that we spend most of our lives flying into large mountains avoiding small bullets. I learned that lesson when I saw a guy do that very thing in Viet Nam, so clanked was he about the idea of someone shooting at him that he ignored the reality that airplanes and mountains are a bad combo. Yeah, yeah, I know, we can’t dictate market forces. But if OPEC can, we can. Of course we’d only do that if we had confidence in the resilience of the American people and if national security were more important to us than oil company profits. Our homeland security problem is that the American Oil Industry benefits from artificially low prices as much as the Sheiks of Araby, as ex-CIA Mideast specialist Bob Baer points out in Sleeping With the Devil: How Washington Sold Our Soul for Saudi Crude, cited today by Salon,“the real war we should be fighting is not in Baghdad.” Small Minds, not Small GovernmentMaybe we got it wrong. We thought the Bushies were about small government, but perhaps it was only about their small mandate. Maybe they were fixated on what everyone seems to ignore: without extraordinary measures, they’re unlikely to get more votes than last time. The opportunity the Bin Laden family handed the Bush family was to paralyze our culture so ordinary electoral logic would not apply.
These cynical points have been made by smarter people than I. I’m just riffing on the role of our cultural aesthetic and high tolerance of cynicism. The political cynicism we’re seeing is related to the cynicism of public companies and TV evangelists and the media. Our cultural taste no longer reflects the high personal values most of us hold, regardless of our politics. Instead, we’re gripped by the opportunistic economic aesthetics of large groups, where anything goes as long as it increases stock values or electoral votes or collection plate revenues. |





Are you one of the Top Secret weapons that Trippi was going to use the extra $258k to acquire?
Posted by: Phoenix Woman at August 1, 2003 10:21 AM | Link