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. . . of last time is the buyer’s ethical responsibility to embrace the seller and help extend the seller’s skills and reputation. If that’s the flip side, then my last rant must have been the flippant side, noting how resentful and impatient we are with a seller’s shortcomings, whether real or assumed. The urge to encourage and cultivate a seller is part of the relationship model that Doc has been championing along with many others. During the period between 40 to 1 B.C. (Before Cluetrain), we assumed that commerce is simply commercial, with buyers and sellers doomed forever to terse, often adversarial salvos. We might call that communication mode expedient. The long decline into mass marketing and the muting of the customer’s voice had caused us to forget about the market conversation, or to conduct it sotto voce at best. Then the Internet clued us that the market is a conversation and money is just the punch line. Doc reports that, soon after the ink dried, the Clue Trainers started hearing from people whose cultures had not lost the art of transactional conversation. They pointed out that real markets are more than conversations, they’re relationships, crafted one conversation at a time, often over decades and generations. When we realize that markets are relationships, we can recognize that Iraq’s Sumerian ancestors invented written language, not to record their ancient myths and epic poetry, but to keep track of market conversations and the relationships developed out of them. At first they were anecdotal, like blogs are today. They evolved like blogs, getting more efficient, connected and data-like until an Italian friar named Fra Luca Pacioli invented double entry bookkeeping in 1494. In a very real sense, double entry bookkeeping was the XML of the Renaissance. (Are the “o”, “k” and “e” double-entered in “bookkeeping” just to get the point across? How weird is that?) We need to be clear: Literature, Ethics and Law are the products of explicit recorded history and explicitness is the enabling technology of market relationships. Like VisiCalc jump-starting personal computing, public markets were the killer app that jump-started money and writing and literacy. Without public markets, trade isn’t robust enough to support anything more than ad hoc barter. The agora requires standard pricing of a commodity to act as a medium of exchange (probably grain in Mesopotamia) and writing to support the market experience, where you barter your pig in the morning for grain or shells or coins and then barter them for a rabbit, maize, mead, a trinket and a little hashish to make it all seem worthwhile. When everyone uses the same barter good, it’s money, no matter how it’s styled. The agora was surrounded by cafés, foundries for written philosophy, politics, laws. John Bosak famously said that “XML gives Java something to do.” Writing gave Hammurabi, Homer, Plato, Aristotle and Solon something to do. We didn’t need literacy to teach the youngsters in Ur about Gilgamesh. Epic poetry retold around the hearth did that more effectively than books ever would. We needed writing only to record explicit market relationships:
Agriculture was the watershed organizing force that institutionalized slavery and accounting. Daniel Quinn suggested that the Garden of Eden Myth started as the recounting of a barely remembered hunter-gatherer utopia in the lush Fertile Crescent before farming and climate cleared and desolated the middle east. Explicating the ImplicitAs Ross Mayfield noted, it’s often good to be explicit. In the case of transactions, Cluetrain gave us a context to be explicit about market conversations. Bloggging tools set us up to record and archive our thoughts and, collectively, to archive our market conversations and suggest their progeny, relationships. What will give us the context to describe and implement market relationships on a global scale? Let’s review the evolution of markets (warning: non-researched vague impressions formatted to look authoritative):
If that’s how trading and markets evolve, then we can guess that they evolve to the next stage when the old modality can’t scale to meet the requirements of a new cultural phase. Hunter gatherers accumulate no more than they can haul around, and they meet very few of each other. Farmers build granaries and farm-to-market roads and highways and cities with sewage systems. All of those imply coinage and accounting as soon as bartering won’t scale to the newly expanded marketplace. Farmers notice that tea kettles develop a lot of pressure, but they don’t do anything with that knowledge. When steam is harnessed, trade routes proliferate, as cotton is moved to the mills in bulk and loomed into cloth to be worn by the newly employed and tightly scheduled loom operators whose wages buy the cotton. (“Got no time to haggle now, I’m late, I’m late, I’m late!”) Haggling on small items won’t scale to an industrial pace, so John Wanamaker instantiated fixed pricing in the 1880s, as Saturn did for cars in the 1990s. The expedient mode scales great as long as the one-to-many model of clerk-based retailing constrains buyers’ choices. But when media frees sellers from the clerk-based low bandwidth model to the high bitstreams of broadcast, many more sellers are selling to many more buyers. The broadcast model may be one-to many, but the seller model is many-to-manymore. Early e-commerce, we know, is just brochureware, so nothing really changes until data driven web sites and email and web logs open an electronic feedback trickle rising to a bit torrent. That’s where we are now, on the cusp of a peer economy. P2P transactions may look like data-backed blogs talking about commerce, like this example. A global market as intimate as blogging is a major disruptor. Should we be surprised that this era’s masters are fighting our current scaling crisis without really understanding it? Why should they be any different than their precursors at previous inflection points, movers shaking at the prospect of a new mode for transactions? Sweet Home, Ali BabaSo here we are, the newest, least subtle culture, back in the Tigris-Euphrates valley where it all started, just as our economy is emerging from the cathedral’s gloom, blinking in the bright light of the global bazaar. Obsessing about Iraq and antiquities and cuneiform records and all the rest, reinventing the divine chaordia of peer-to-peer market relationships mediated by value and quality and with asynchronous time enough to care about those arcane, . . . well, qualities. The super market’s goods scaled to suburbia but they really weren’t goods, just OKs. They were less filling and worse tasting than fresh New Jersey tomatoes and Iowa farm-raised beef. The mass market is re-learning how to spell q-u-a-l-i-t-y and we won’t let mass merchandising put our genie back in their bottle. Now we have all three communication modes at our disposal: Expedience, Conversation and Relationship. We don’t want to haggle over commodities but we’re experts in prestige and the tools of our trade and we want the good life at great prices. You’ll find us over at CostCo, loading paper towels into our Mercedes. Next we’ll stop at CompUSA, grooving to our iPod while stocking up on commodity CD blanks to Rip Mix Burn on our tricked-out iMac. Back home, we’ll order cut-rate printer cartridges from inks4art.com since CostCo and CompUSA only stock the Epson parts.
How will we know about those tomatoes and steaks? The same way we knew about them in the bazaar: Reputation. Reputation, that evanescent characteristic owned by everyone except the person it’s attached to. Reputation, the secret sauce of a decommodified life. Reputation, the public knowledge that’s too important to be left to private data. Clue the Data, MaestroWe’ve not yet developed a clued-in context to help us talk about open data as A Good Thing, or even why it might be. Aside from anecdotal web sites and blogs (randomly linked but otherwise disconnected), there is no user-centric open data yet, where relationship information, reputation, is threaded and mirrored in the mind/data spaces of the seller and the buyer. Consider this stunning fact: There is still no example of public, open data. Big companies insist on mirroring data for their B2B transactions, often using the EDI protocol or the more pervasive my_lawyers_vs._your_lawyers protocol (FYTP). They can afford the effort to 1) agree to agree, 2) explicate the agreement, 4) staff for compliance and 5) go to court to weasel out of or enforce the agreement. But you and I don’t have that luxury and we can’t compete with mass merchandisers interpreting our data for us, constrained by business models and data architectures that can’t scale to the public forum. Corporate AgoraphobiaCompanies hate public scrutiny as much as agoraphobic hermits hibernating year round. They would never conceive of open data along the Xpertweb model so data for the rest of us is a job for the rest of us. The Internet and FTP and email and the web was built by clued individuals who proved it could scale What might fuel such a profound shift? What’s even more powerful than companies’ behind-the-scenes collusion, haggling, defaults and legal maneuvering? Publicity, and its dependent, politics. Publicity is literally openness. Openness trumps legality, PR, accounting, advertising, good intentions, pricing, litigation and every other mechanism that convinces us it’s a good idea to buy over-hyped commodities and sell an hour of our time for $20 so the company can resell it for $60. A single email may be enough openness to bring bankers down who once would have moved quietly on to another firm to do it all over again. When reputation data is too broadly distributed to be hidden and too obvious to be spun, we’ll have recaptured the User Interface enjoyed by generations of traders in the stalls of Chaldea, relating to generations of customers, teaching the world how to serve the customer and the bottom line. Like any relationship, it’s a two way street. Gradually we’ll remember how to be great customers, embracing and extending seller’s customization skills, relating through authentic conversations and coaxing each other into the peer economy, one expert at a time. |
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Category: Uncategorized
The Missing Element
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Many threads are woven into the Xpertweb meme. Like most of us, I’m prone to remember poor service longer than good service. I’ve found, though, that outstanding service is so welcome that I want to tell my friends about it, like great art, which it partly is. By noting great service, I also reassure myself that I’m not yet so jaded that I have to wear my old fart lapel pin. FWIW, I’ve been conducting an experiment for several decades. Regardless of the service, tip the cab driver generously on the way to the airport and you’ll never be an airline statistic. The warranty does not extend to your luggage. Unfortunately I mostly notice poor service. For many years, I was a reasonably successful real estate developer. Since we contracted to build things, we were always a heartbeat away from a contracting meltdown that made the Money Pit look like a doghouse with crooked siding. About 1980, I was building a shopping center and construction had not started well. Haranguing the pleasant but somewhat lackadaisical contractors wasn’t helping. I walked into the construction shack one morning and immediately sensed that something was very wrong.
Meeting Mania Intervention—The 12 Steps to SobrietyMeetings waste more time than any other activity. Most groups would be better off with a Wiki. Most Wikis would be better with less conversation and more explicit promises. Do you suppose that explains the success of Open Source? It’s a huge operation that never holds a meeting. The only reason to have a meeting is to find out what everyone’s doing, what they should be doing and when they will work on what they should be doing. Many organizations I’ve worked for want more technology, but often the best thing I teach them is how to have a meeting. It’s actually simple:
That’s it. Published promises galvanize productivity. If you do nothing more than list them, you’re ahead of 99% of the world’s workgroups. Xpertweb forms automate that process. No frickin’ calendar? Sheesh! |
Dinner in The Big Bloggle
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I’m down for the dinner Doc and Haley are planning on May 1, my favorite date. Here’s why. I once helped a friend establish a trust company. One of their clients was in his late 80s, was terminally ill and looked it. He was spending the last spring of his life fine-tuning an already well-crafted estate plan. It seemed like a terrible set of priorities to me. On May 1, 1993, he shuffled into the office with a gleam in his eye and asked rhetorically, “Do you know what we can say today?“ He grinned at our cluelessness:
He was dead by fall. |
Secret Lithuanian Energy Source
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Actually, I may be the last person to learn about Andrius Kalikauskas and MS Labs. Andrius is a passionate guy with undergraduate degrees in math and physics and a physics PhD. Andrius was introduced to Xpertweb by Mitch and Flemming as a person who is interested in reputation systems. Since they are Xpertweb’s secret weapons, their recommendation ensured that he would be involved. Andrius’ larger concern is thinking itself. Most people don’t realize that thinking is a tool so they don’t treat it with the objectivity they might use when shopping for a computer or Sawzall. The tag line of MS Labs is “Do you care about thinking?” Flemming riffs on thinking:
The presence of that quote in this post is an example of Andrius’ work. He organizes and juxtaposes important points of view among his MS Labs members. I’d seen the quote before, but might not have found it again without seeing it in the MS Labs members’ feed. Logically enough, the MS discussion group is called “Thinking Relevantly.” Relevance is the first service Andrius is performing for Xpertweb. Another is to help organize willing hearts and minds to help with the coding and rollout. Andrius is pressing Flemming (actually, himself and Flemming…;-) to have working code on May 23, for demonstration at the BlogTalk conference in Vienna. That’s what Andrius does, he catalyzes innovation. Andrius and Flemming are both driven to take the broadest view possible when starting a project, questioning every assumption and bias. Combined with Mitch’s dogma-killing crusade, Xpertweb is reasonably protected from blowing smoke up its own ass. All three of them know that the most dangerous force in developing a new protocol is one’s own assumptions and biases. Half a LoafHere’s an example of how Andrius is questioning our assumptions:
When you go to the references link, you see entries like this:
You’ll find 14 sets of these kindwords on the page, demonstrating why Andrius is so valuable. I picked a series of three at random, and discovered something about non-explicit reputation systems when I rea Like blogs, kindword/frustration/evaluation comments can be helpful but they share a failing we’ve discovered about blogs, which is why people are trying to leverage them into knowledge management systems: non-explicit, anecdotal text is quotable but otherwise unusable. Here’s a report just in from Jason Calacanis on how his company’s venture capital database overtook the previous market leader, which was a blog about venture capital:
Reputation is too important to be a hobby. If I’m looking for a Java programmer for a particular solution, and I need it by Tuesday, how do I use the accumulated kindword entries to find the perfect programmer? I want the kind words, of course, but I need quantitative ratings and average rating reports and numerical comparisons that act as pointers to help me get to the these little blocks of text. All of that info might be available elsewhere, but surely it will be captured on the site of the person with the reputation, (or in an RSS feed) so, that I can click on a link to an order form as soon as I’m satisfied that I’ve found what I need. The Xpertweb approach is to require the buyer to provide the kind (or not) words and a number grade (01-99%). Then we can look at all the Java programmers who have sold n or more tasks involving, for example, graphic representation of numerical data. The operative word is require. A reputation system is worthless if it captures ratings only at the whim of the buyer, or worse, at the whim of participants in a forum, as in this example, where the comments do not necessarily relate to a particular task. They can be too vague to benefit the next customer. Therefore it’s imperative to require that a grade and comment be recorded within a specified period after presentation of a completion report or invoice. Pulling the String . . .Have you ever had one of those projects which seemed simple, but once you got into it, you discover non intuitive requirements embedded in your initial enthusiasm? Such a discovery is like pulling a string out of a sweater. Actualizing the Xpertweb meme is a little like that. Here’s what happens when you think seriously about a useful reputation system:
Fair enough, those forms could be designed in an afternoon. But there are other considerations. Once completed, where should their data be stored? Today, such information is kept by the seller. Naturally, the seller will yield to the temptation to excise the unflattering remarks. The data could be kept on a central server, but then what happens to reputations built through blood, sweat and tears if the central servers go out of business? It’s not like the W3C is gonna store this info for us. Just as bad, any centralized system may not scale as needed or worse, is corruptible, as described in the HumanTech Parable. The only answer left standing is that both the buyer and the seller must keep the information, which must be identical to be valid. That means that both parties must have a web site with space and programming for the reputation system. Ratings so mirrored are demonstrably valid. If there’s any divergence, the ratings cannot be presumed to be valid. The ratings are only useful if subsequent users can access the reputation data. Conventional wisdom says the data should be a mySQL data base with a CGI. Then, of course, each user would need an XML-RPC or SOAP routine to access reputation data from all the other sites. That’s a load which is sure to overload the requirement for user-maintained data. (Visionary doesn’t have to mean stupid–there are some experts who think Xpertweb is silly enough already!) The obvious but counter-intuitive answer is to post all data as pure XML in plain sight on each user’s Xpertweb site with known paths to the data. And it doesn’t stop there. Our little Xpertweb engine (the little engine that might) needs to help its users describe specific products, like a customized PHP-MySQL shopping cart or mowing a 20,000 sq. ft. lawn. Once described, that product data must be accessible as a product page, and the product itself must have a reputation built around it. When someone needs their drain fixed, they’re not really looking for a plumber, they’re looking for a fixed drain. That’s almost the end of our little string, so I’ll spare you the rest. Freeing the HorseAs Doc reported on Thursday, these requirements seem implicit if you’re serious about a useful reputation system, sort of like seeing the horse in a block of marble and removing all the marble that doesn’t look like a horse. In fact, as Doc also related, a useful reputation system seems to me to be implicit in the XML spec. Though enterprises seem to be using XML primarily as a serialization routine (like SOAP) to connect legacy data systems, XML is fine as a data format, if you’re willing to live with its verbosity. As a data format hosted on a web server, XML is readable by search engines, a skillion parsers and certainly by a thin-client purpose-built script like the one we’re building for Xpertweb. We’re even on the cusp of a promise dormant since the spec became a recommendation in February, 1998: An XHTML page can contain explicit links to bits of XML data and, without any programming display linked data when the page is opened. XML is truly data for the rest of us, because it frees us from CGI programming and the hidden data that only CGIs can talk to. Internal CombustionAll those moving parts seem obvious and necessary if you’re serious about a useful reputation system. If there are any shortcuts, we’d love to hear about them. We have recurrent internal debate on whether all these moving parts are necessary, typically when a new teammate signs on, as in Andrius’ case. I see a reputation engine as a kind of internal combustion engine. Even if it’s a two-banger, you still need quite a few moving parts to get it to turn over. I think we have a pretty good design and built-in means to re-engineer it while it’s running. That’s why I welcome dogma slayers, |
What’s That in Your Genes?
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Mitch and I are doing a little hobby consulting with Allen Searls, Doc’s son. Are we surprised that this Searls is also smart? Doc says Allen is a lot smarter than he is. Well, doh. He’s smart enough to be in his 20s. What’s hobby consulting? It’s when you have a little experience and a lot of mileage, and you help out someone with energy, promise and a good mind. Unlike regular consulting you don’t get paid and you don’t tell your client what he wants to hear but rather what he needs to hear. (Actually, I now tell clients what they need to hear, which is why I don’t have as many clients as I used to, but they stay in business longer.) Allen has developed a live expert solution called GlobeAlive, the World Live Web. The participants on the site use a built-in chat tool to augment email as a way to connect to an expert immediately, which is the gold standard of using expertise. Mitch and I are helping Allen develop the site along conventional lines and also preparing it to act as an Xpertweb infomediary for the benefit of Allen’s participants. Here’s Allen describing his unique value proposition:
It’s amazing that Allen “got” this Identity and Presence thing so long ago, and developed his own chat engine, within GlobeAlive, to connect his participants. Compare the GlobeAlive service to my conception of ideal support and expertise: The Problem with Silicon-based SolutionsThere’s not too little software, there’s too much. All the enthusiastic do-it-yourselfers who want to learn and explore new applications and scripting languages and preference panels have already done so. How many apps can one person master? I’m a maven with about a dozen software apps and conversant with another couple of dozen, but I feel incredibly incompetent when confronted with a software issue. In the 1970’s, every new piece of software was new and compelling. Perhaps because there were so few of them. It’s like wiring your stereo. It starts as a receiver and 2 speakers and morphs slowly into a component system – you’re able to grow your dendrites at the same rate as the system. But software got away from us a long time ago. So I’m as put off by new software as I am by late model car engines. The investment of time and energy in a new app seems like just too much hassle. You know what I want? I want Commander Data. I want him in my coat closet, using no resources until I have a question and then he activates, solves my problem and goes back into stasis (he might be expletive-activated and then expletive-deleted). Because he’s Commander Data, he does everything almost immediately, so I’m willing to pay him a lot per minute. I’ll bet that’s what you want too: an expert on the software you’ve got, not more software for you to be inept with. Carbon-based SolutionsMy Commander Data exists, but he’s in the form of dozens of skill sets, each possessed by thousands of people whom I could IM or web to, if I knew how to connect with them. For every problem I’ve got, there are lots of folks who are as good as Commander Data for that specific problem and who would be happy to help me out, especially if paid, say, $1 per minute. Sometimes you find them at help desks, but rarely, and the irritation threshold is just too high there. I need an index of “amateur” experts with proven track records who are available immediately for high per-minute rates which I only pay when I’m satisfied, which means they have to be confident that I’ll be reasonably satisfied. So we also need a reputation engine in addition to an expert index. They need to be “amateurs” for the same reason that the best bloggers are amateurs. With a decent market for instant expertise, more than software support becomes available. I’ll find wizards at Excel who can whip up an analysis by noon that would take me ’til Memorial Day. So why would I buy Excel? There will be online bookkeepers who’ll make my copy of QuickBooks irrelevant. Etc. and so on. Customers for expertise are not customers for software. If you’re in the software business, this is a nasty vision, but what other outcome is more likely? We know we’ll figure out how to link up consumers with experts who know how to do the things that software publishers wish everyone would like to learn. If this vision is correct, the software industry will find itself at a crossroads as dicey as the one faced by the RIAA. How many experts are needed to do the specialized tasks of, say, a thousand people? Way less than a thousand. Do companies want their people struggling with Excel analyses when they can outsource the expertise for a fraction of the allocable resource costs? Your guess is better than mine, but from here it feels more like the Dreamweaver market than the MS Of Maybe the answer is Xpertweb. When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. From here anyway. |
The Doc is In
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Doc points to my Spin Country entry but pushes back a little, noting that corporate propaganda may be less now than it once was, scrutinized as it is by fact checking bloggers:
I agree. Also, as I put this and me to bed in the early morning hours, I felt the post was a little cynical:
I went over the top there, since most people in organizations do the right thing and work hard at doing it better. But the grain of truth is that they work for top-level managers who are forced to generate impossibly optimistic intimations of breakout possibilities, in an arms race against competitive optimism to try to get a little respect from jaded analysts (at least the analysts they don’t have in their pocket). I don’t see a conspiracy here, just the unfortunate maneuvers of people who do sorry things because they feel they need to. The Fix is InWhat’s shocking is the pervasiveness of cynical, amnesia-based representations by companies, governments and religious folk. Amnesia-based in the sense that it relies on the public’s tendency to be so busy with their real lives to track and check facts, but rather to respond to the tone of the representations it sees and hears, rather than the underlying, fairly obvious realities. Our memory seems about 3 months long and shrinking. It’s as if managers, politicians and evangelists believe their own PR and then, like a kid caught in a fib, feel forced to extend and embellish misleading statements to make them big enough to be believed. No Way OutThe most obvious example of this disconnect is practiced by Karl Rove’s White House, Praising soldiers while cutting veteran’s benefits, cheerleading education while cutting school budgets, Deriding Big Gummint while designing the biggest deficit in history. Our Attorney General, the Cop of Our Land, is on the record advising his people to overtly violate the Freedom of Information Act. Who’s going to prosecute them? It’s like a police cruiser parked on the sidewalk in front of Krispy Kreme. It’s disgusting when corporate chieftains and evangelists violate our trust, but we can sell stocks and boycott products and worship elsewhere, precious freedoms all. But notice a cynical disconnect in the integrity of the leaders of the land, and you’re told to Love it or Leave it. Bad news fellas, thinking people are here for the long haul, and our collective memories are long enough to notice lies and resurrect the truth. |
PRoogling For Dollars
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Speaking of the Spin Problem (below), If Google labels a press release as news, will there be any difference between spin and news? Here’s a little design exercise that shows what a long lever arm Google has become. We start with how bad its current policy is, and imagine how it might help make journalism honest again. Dan Gillmor, Dave Winer, The Register and many others have objected to Google’s treatment of press releases as the same as news. Google’s well-received Beta News service lists a press release as a peer to a news articles if both are returned by the same search argument. This is A Bad Thing, especially since it’s so hard to tell the difference anyway. But could Google turn the tables and increase its stature with a simple algorithm? What we know:
Presto! Google becomes part of the solution and exposes how little of “news” is newsworthy. |
Spin Country
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Why has the rise of the Web coincided so precisely with a decline in organizational candor? Obviously I don’t blame the web, but I wonder at the coincidence. By organizational candor, I’m thinking of the alignment of what is said by corporations and religions and companies, compared to their actions. Whether it’s a company, a government or a religion, it seems that a marketing mentality has co-opted the organizational agenda. This disconnect is what the Cluetrain guys were describing:
Have you heard the old saw that a man’s blood supply is insufficient to support his brain and penis simultaneously? Likewise, perhaps, there’s just not enough energy in an organization to talk the talk and walk the walk. Our Future EconomyNot the economy of the future, but an economy obsessed with future outcomes. That is to say, outcomes which have not yet occurred. That is to say, outcomes which are not in place, as in nonexistent. We think it’s great to be forward-looking, working on emerging technologies and inventing the future. But organizations seem to spend so much effort describing their impending triumphs that they just can’t match their projected image or meet the inflated expectations that they so casually broadcast. Perhaps it is the Internet’s fault. Perhaps it’s always been like this and the Internet has exposed a traditional disconnect which was not obvious before. However, there’s another suspect. Some time in the 1990’s, the quintessential corporate obsession became stock price rather than intrinsic company value. And stock price is all about unexpected good news which the SEC calls “Forward-looking statements”. These statements have even perverted formerly reliable statements like “the company will“:
Aha! Now we’re on to something. Corporations must maximize their stock market valuation so employees who do the things that raise the stock price are valued above all others. Now let’s consider what really drives stock prices. Do we think it’s by doing the right things that build a solid company and better social values? No, that’s just the spin. The market discounts all the information it already has, whether it’s product news or war news, as Mitch Ratcliffe observed on April 9th in Wreakonomic Reality:
Profits. Those often ugly realities which, we know, companies will attempt to counter with marketing to the stock market, spinning the analysts, pre-announcing products not ready for prime time and all the other insubstantial maneuvers meant to divert the world from that pesky challenge called profits. The Hard Work of Holding a JobThe obsession with brightly painted futures is not confined to the executive suite, it permeates organizations. The brightest, most ambitious employees can’t afford to work for a living. They need to hold jobs for a living. Sure, they’d like to work for a living, but they need to do what best secures their families’ futures: their careers. And what builds careers? Expectations build careers. Track records don’t build careers, mentoring doesn’t build careers, innovation doesn’t build careers. What builds careers is the constant expectation that you will make things dramatically better, with the emphasis on the dramatic part. And that’s the problem. Practical, workmanlike solutions are not dramatic enough for a spin-based economy. No, if you want a meteoric career, you’d better come up with whopper ideas, transformative re-structurings, mega deals and impossibly complex global initiatives that are never proposed by the conventional, unimaginative people whose horizons are limited by the realities of operations and the fact that there’s no such thing as a resourceless task. What if things don’t work as planned? It really won’t matter to your career, because you’ll have moved on to your next grand vision. The disconnect between the grand plan and the sad reality won’t be apparent until you’ve applied your magic to an even bigger opportunity in some other division or subsidiary or, more likely, moved up to corporate where your positive attitude and strong convictions give hope to an even higher level of credulous cheerleaders. Nope, none of has met a bubble we didn’t love, in a company or in the market. For those with the best backgrounds, prospects and handshakes, bold initiatives are the path to corporate stardom, with a remarkable strain of company amnesia about what happens to the grand plans 3 years later, when the shooting star of your career is riddling another operational illusion. What Doesn’t WorkThere’s a lot of ritual in business. We do things because it’s unthinkable to not do them, even if there’s no evidence that they make much difference. Consider Marketing and sales. When we consider the billions of dollars spent on advertising, we glimpse a naked emperor. Maybe there’s some huge cohort of the population that we’ve never met that is highly impacted by ads, but I haven’t met anyone whose buying decisions are actually impacted by most advertising. If my premise is correct, it’s because there are three kinds of purchases, habitual, important and trivial.
I know, there are far smarter people than I who have proved time again that advertising is effective and crucial. I’m just reflecting my experience and that of people I know. Do you suppose those studies were done by people with a vested interest? Maybe they’re just more spin, since a lot of careers are counting on advertising. Don’t pay attention to the detail that the only ads with measurable effectiveness, Web and email ads, are so ineffective as to be laughable. The other thing that doesn’t work as advertised is selling. Don’t take my word for it, ask Jerry Vass, author of Soft Selling in a Hard World. Jerry is paid a lot of money to teach highly paid account execs to string together the right words to close sales. He will tell you that only 52% of sales are the result of selling. The remaining 48% involve salespeople, but may be subject to the same three limiting factors as advertising. Here’s Jerry’s assessment of most experienced salespeople:
So if marketing doesn’t work and selling doesn’t work, how do we explain all the business that gets done? We are, after all, running a robust economy here, even when times are slow. Maybe it’s because we’re all in the habit of buying stuff from each other, and we make our peace with whatever level of quality our research leaves us with. Maybe competitors spend about the same amount on marketing and sales and so it looks like it’s as necessary as sponsoring a tennis star or golf tournament. But I think it’s because top executives like to hobnob with celebrities. What we do know is that if a company quotes a study, we assume it’s been rigged in ways we can’t analyze. If the government says a new law is good for us, we assume it’s beneficiaries have prepaid its sponsors. If the Catholic Church or the Air Force Academy says that sexual abuse is rare, you know that a lot of innocents are being taken advantage of. Spin gives you motion sickness and our society is looking a little green around the gills. |
A Thousand Points of View
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You may have heard about the LA Times’ discovery that one of its war photographers had photoshopped a couple of images together “to improve the composition.” The Times summarily fired him and several bloggers have been wondering how much of the rest of what we see is fake. (Login name and password = “useless”) Tim Bray writes,
It looks like Tim is describing the proliferation of ubiquitous PFRs–Personal Flight Recorders, unobtrusively streaming our captured video to our private repository and sharing them at will:
On the same theme, Ming blogged yesterday about a Salon article by Sheldon Pacotti. Pacotti is properly concerned about the surveillence society enabled by Constitution-bashers like the little bible thumper Ashcroft, enabling an industry of people whose job is to watch us:
Ming concurs:
Although Flemming goes on to follow Pacotti’s concerns about the spread of “dangerous ideas” like nanotech and nukes and gasses, but I’m most interested in the vision of a surveillance industry so overwhelmed and outclassed by the collective record that it has no useful product to sell. Sorta like a guy on the street corner peddling an 80/20 nitrogen/oxygen mix. Peer Brother is Watching You (from 2/15/03)
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Abundant Evidence
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From Europe a week ago, Flemming wrote on the subject of “Original Affluence.” Quoting Marshall Sahlins, who, in The Original Affluent Society, described what Ming calls “gift economies and how pre-historic economic systems weren’t as miserable as they’re commonly believed to be“. In addition to the current assumption that wants are always greater than the means to satisfy them, Sahlins says:
Flemming goes on to say,
Call Me IshmaelThis was well depicted in Daniel Quinn’s Ishmael which described the life of a Mountain Gorilla as a little like living in a candy store, where the gorilla would absent-mindedly stretch out his hand and it would rest on some delicious green shoot. Quinn suggests that the Garden of Eden is a primordial species memory of how life was before the few locked up the food to sell it to the many and called it the miracle of agriculture. So pervasive is our presumption of primordial want and brutality compared to modern wealth and satisfaction that we can’t recognize what is obvious. In a hunter-gatherer society, whether foxes or gazelles or people, the resources are in perfect balance with the populations. Unless the ecosystem is undergoing one of its rare rapid changes, the population fluctuates a little around its ability to find food. Like a thermostat, a little excess leads to a little adjustment, which may not even be noticed. These are animals and people who have lived their lives bundled up in winter and sweating in summer with a stomach rarely as full as ours is three times a day. So they do not expect, or want, anything else. Every one of them kills a lot of creatures during a lifetime, but is only killed once. Without a highly developed sense of the future or social entitlements. That single death may have little sting. Could we ever hope to regain a hunter-gatherer mentality and affluence model? I’ve often fantasized that Xpertweb might be in some ways a parallel. If your reputation is your marketing and guaranteed satisfaction a way to close more sales, you may find customers guided to you by your excellent ratings in your area of specialization. That would make you more a gatherer than a hunter. Like Amazon, orders would come in at a rate close to what you can handle, because if it’s less, you’ll master other skills better suiting your talent. Or if you get too busy, you’ll tap your skill at finding Xpertweb help to subcontract work to, confident in their proven ability. And you may train others to help you fill the enthusiastic market. Consider Flemming’s conclusion:
A Lever Long Enough to Move the World?Ming’s got Xpertweb on his mind as much as I do, so perhaps he’s glimpsed the same possibilities. He’s clearly noting that most people don’t work for a living, but hold jobs for a living. If we’re less than 10% on task, what happens when we’re 20% on task for each other and spend the rest of our time off the meter? A cornucopia never really dreamt of. Interesting that 20% of a 12 hour day is close to the 3 hours that hunter-gatherers like to put in. Of course that cornucopia won’t deliver us to the Zen state that Flemming and Marshall Sahlins and I admire but have not achieved (well, one of us hasn’t). However, it opens the possibility of release from the expectation of deprivation and want. And there’s nothing more Zen than letting go of fear. Have you noticed that the peace protests and more enlightened seeking happens in affluent areas? Maybe you consider those expressions too new age for your taste, but there are a lot of people working out a new reality so dramatic that it’s been called, collectively, the second superpower. Like the ancient Athenians, the common ground of people seeking a better world is relative affluence, not scraping by. Instead of slaves, we’ll have each other, amplified by elegant electronic levers that Archimedes could never imagine. |


